Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6.5 a P(even number) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2
b P(number less than or equal to 4) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3
c P(number greater than or equal to 5) = P(5) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
6.7a P(Adams loses) = P(Brown wins) + P(Collins wins) + P(Dalton wins) = .09 + .27 + .22 = .58
b P(either Brown or Dalton wins) = P(Brown wins) + P(Dalton wins) = .09 + .22 = .31
c P(either Adams, Brown, or Collins wins) = P(Adams wins) + P(Brown wins) + P(Collins wins)
= .42 + .09 + .27 = .78
6.8 a {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
b {4, 5}
c P(5) = .10
d P(2, 3, or 4) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = .26 + .21 + .18 = .65
e P(6) = 0
157
6.10 P(Contractor 1 wins) = 2/6, P(Contractor 2 wins) = 3/6, P(Contractor 3 wins) = 1/6
6.11 a {Shopper pays cash, shopper pays by credit card, shopper pays by debit card}
b P(Shopper pays cash) = .30, P(Shopper pays by credit card) = .60, P(Shopper pays by debit card)
= .10
c Relative frequency approach
6.12 a P(shopper does not use credit card) = P(shopper pays cash) + P(shopper pays by debit card)
= .30 + .10 = .40
b P(shopper pays cash or uses a credit card) = P(shopper pays cash) + P(shopper pays by credit
card)
= .30 + .60 = .90
P( B1 ) = .1 + .3 + .2 = .6, P( B 2 ) = .2 + .1 + .1 = .4.
P(A1 and B1 ) .4
6.18 a P(A1 | B1 ) = = = .57
P(B1 ) .7
P(A 2 and B1 ) .3
b P(A 2 | B1 ) = = = .43
P(B1 ) .7
c Yes. It is not a coincidence. Given B1 the events A1 and A 2 constitute the entire sample space.
P(A1 and B 2 ) .2
6.19 a P(A1 | B 2 ) = = = .67
P( B 2 ) .3
158
P(A1 and B2 ) .2
b P( B 2 | A 1 ) = = = .33
P(A1) .6
c One of the conditional probabilities would be greater than 1, which is not possible.
c P( A 1 or A 2 ) = P(A 1 ) + P(A 2 ) = .6 + .4 = 1
independent.
dependent.
6.24 P( A1 ) = .15 + .25 = .40, P( A 2 ) = .20 + .25 = .45, P( A 3 ) = .10 + .05 = .15.
159
c No, because promotion and gender are independent events.
6.31 The events are dependent because P(he has lung disease) = .15, P(he has lung disease | he is a
smoker) = .387
d (a) is the joint probability and (b) and (c) are conditional probabilities
160
6.34 a P(ulcer) = .01 + .03 + .03 + .04 = .11
P(ulcer and none) .01 .01
b P(ulcer | none) = = = = .043
P(none) .01 + .22 .23
161
P(Violent crime and enrollment less than 300) .159 .159
6.40a = = = .636
P(Enrollment less than 300) .159 + .091 .250
162
P(bachelor ' s deg ree and west) .046 .046
= = = = .201
P( west) .036 + .059 + .045 + .020 + .046 + .023 .229
b P(northeast | high school graduate)
P(northeast and high school graduate ) .063 .063
= = = = .199
P(high school graduate ) .063 + .078 + .117 + .059 .317
c P(south) = .059 + .117 + .061 + .030 + .065 + .032 = .364
d P(not south) = 1 –P(south) = 1−.364 = .636
6.47
6.48
163
6.49
6.50
6.51
164
6.52
6.53 a & b
c 0 right-handers 1
1 right-hander 3
2 right-handers 3
3 right-handers 1
d P(0 right-handers) = .001
165
P(1 right-hander) = 3(.009) = .027
P(2 right-handers) = 3(.081) = .243
P(3 right-handers) = .729
6.54a
b P(RR) = .8091
c P(LL) = .0091
d P(RL) + P(LR) = .0909 + .0909 = .1818
e P(RL) + P(LR) + P(RR) = .0909 + .0909 + .8091 = .9909
6.55a
166
P(1 right-hander) = 3(90/100)(10/99)(9/98) = .0249
P)2 right-handers) = 3(90/100)(89/99)(10/98) = .2478
P(3 right-handers) = (90/100)(89/99)(88/98) = .7265
6.56
6.57
P(sale) = .04
167
6.58
6.59
168
6.60
6.61
169
6.62
6.63
170
6.64
6.65
6.66 Let A = mutual fund outperforms the market in the first year
B = mutual outperforms the market in the second year
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B | A) = (.15)(.22) = .033
171
The probability that the plane will crash is
P(M and B1 and B2) = [P(M)][ P(B1)][ P(B2)]
= (.0001) (.01) (.01)
= .00000001
We have assumed that the 3 systems will fail independently of one another.
6.70
6.72 P(A and B) = .32, P(AC and B) = .14, P(B) = .46, P(BC) = .54
P(A and B) .32
a P(A | B) = = = .696
P(B) .46
172
6.73
6.75 Define events: A = crash with fatality, B = BAC is greater than .09)
P(A) = .01, P(B | A) = .084, P(B) = .12
P(A and B) = (.01)(.084) = .00084
P(A and B) .00084
P(A | B) = = = .007
P(B) .12
173
P(B ) = .085 + .261 = .346
P(A and B) .085
P(A | B) = = = .246
P(B) .346
6.79 Define events: A = smoke, B1 = did not finish high school, B 2 = high school graduate, B 3 =
174
P(A) = .0422 + .1100 + .0443 + .0541 = .2506
P( B 4 | A) = .0541/.2506 = .2159
175
P(A) = .60, P(B | A) = .70, P(B | AC ) =.25
6.82
176
6.83
6.85
177
P(PT) = .0164 + .6233 = .6397
P(NT) = .0036 + .3567 = .3603
P(C and PT) .0164
P(C | PT) = = = .0256
P(PT) .6397
c No, because P(successful) = .66 + .15 = .81, which is not equal to P(successful | –8 or less) .
178
6.89 Define events: A = woman, B = drug is effective
6.92
179
6.94 Define events: R = reoffend, D = detained
180
6.96
181
6.98 Define the events: A1 = envelope containing two Maui brochures is selected, A 2 = envelope
containing two Oahu brochures is selected, A 3 = envelope containing one Maui and one Oahu
182
P(A and B) .068
P(A | B) = = = .2214
P(B) .3072
6.101 Define events: A = job security is an important issue, B = pension benefits is an important
issue
P(A) = .74, P(B) = .65, P(A | B) = .60
a P(A and B) = P(B)P(A | B) = (.65)(.60) = .39
b P(A or B) = .74 + .65 – .39 = 1
6.102 Probabilities of outcomes: P(HH) = .25, P(HT) = .25, P(TH) = .25, P(TT) = .25
P(TT | HH is not possible) = .25/(.25 + .25 + .25) = .333
6.103 P(T) = .5
Case 6.1
1. P(Curtain A) = 1/3, P(Curtain B) = 1/3
2. P(Curtain A) = 1/3, P(Curtain B) = 2/3
Switch to Curtain B and double your probability of winning the car.
Case 6.2
Probability Bases Probability Joint
Outcome of outcome Occupied Outs of scoring Probability
1 .75 2nd 1 .42 .3150
2 .10 1st 1 .26 .0260
3 .10 none 2 .07 .0070
4 .05 1st and 2nd 0 .59 .0295
P(scoring) = .3775
Because the probability of scoring with a runner on first base with no outs (.39) is greater than the
probability of scoring after bunting (.3775) you should not bunt.
Case 6.3
0 outs:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .39
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal probability of scoring
any runs from second base = (.68)(.57) = .3876
Decision: Do not attempt to steal.
183
1 out:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .26
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal probability of scoring
any runs from second base = (.68) (.42) = .2856
Decision: Attempt to steal.
2 outs:
Probability of scoring any runs from first base = .13
Probability of scoring from second base = probability of successful steal probability of scoring
any runs from second base = (.68) (.24) = .1632
Decision: Attempt to steal.
Case 6.4
184
Age 30: P(D) = 1/900
P(D and PT) = (1/900)(.710) = .00079
P(D and NT) = (1/900)(.290) = .00032
185
P(NT) = .00116 + .63072 = .63188
P(D | PT) = .03884/.36812 = .10551
P(D | NT) = .00116/.63188 = .00184
Case 6.5
The probability that 23 people have different birthdays is .4927. The probability that at least two
people have the same birthday is 1 − .4927 = .5073.
186
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
As an invariable rule the rate of cooling fixes the degree of hardness to be had
in the cold piece within the limits of obtainable hardness or softness.
Slow cooling retains softness, so that when annealing is to be done the slower
the cooling the better. Cooling is always a hardening process, but when it is
carried on slowly more softness, will be retained than when the cooling is quick.
Rapid cooling produces hardness, and the more nearly instantaneous it is the
greater the hardness will be. This property of hardening is of such extreme
importance that it will be treated fully in a separate chapter.
There is an apparent exception to this rule shown in the operation called
water-annealing. It is common, when work is hurried, to heat a piece of steel
carefully and uniformly up to the first color, that is, until it just begins to show
color, and then to quench it in water.
This is called water-annealing; and many believe that because a piece so
treated is left softer than it was before treatment, the water-cooling had
something to do with it. The fact is that hammering and rolling are hardening
processes. When the increment of heat due to the work is less than the
decrement of heat due to radiation, the compacting of the grain increases
hardness.
This process leaves the piece harder than does the quenching in water-
annealing; the decrease in hardness due to water-annealing is the difference
between the effects of the two operations. Let two pieces of the same bar be
heated exactly the same for water-annealing; let one be quenched in water, and
the other be allowed to cool in the air in a dry place. Then the superior softness of
the air-cooled piece will show that the so-called water-annealing furnishes no
exception to the rule.
There is one extremely important matter connected with cooling that should be
noted carefully.
It is a common practice among steel-workers when they get a part of a piece
of steel too hot to partially quench that part, and then go on with their heating; or
if they are in a hurry to get out a big day’s work, or if the weather is hot, and a pile
of red-hot bars is uncomfortable, to dash water over the pile and hurry the
cooling.
This practice means checks in the steel, hundreds of them.
A bar breaks and has this appearance. The dark spot is the check; it did not
show in the bar, no inspector could see it, but it broke the bar. Any one can prove
this to his own satisfaction in a few minutes. Take a bar of convenient size, about
one inch by one eighth; heat it carefully to an even medium orange color and
quench it completely; then snip it with a hand-hammer over the edge of an anvil,
snipping away until satisfied that it is sound steel. There are no checks.
Now beat a similar length of the same bar in the same way, and pass it
through the stream from the bosh-pipe, or submerge it for a moment in the bosh,
not long enough to produce more than the slightest trace of a change in the color;
then put it back in the fire and bring it gently to the uniform color used before, and
quench it completely. Now when it is snipped over the anvil it will show numerous
checks, dozens of them.
In this experiment the complete submersion for a moment may not produce
checks at every trial, because the complete submersion permits practically
uniform cooling, which if continued to complete cooling would be simply the
ordinary hardening process. Still it will produce checks in the majority of cases,
indicating that starting the changes, strains, or whatever they are of the
quenching process and then stopping them suddenly while the steel is in the
plastic condition does cause disintegration, so that the operation is dangerous
and should not be tolerated. Passing the hot steel through a stream of water or
dashing water over it must cause different rates of cooling, and necessarily
produce local strains resulting in checks. These latter ways of injuring, therefore,
rarely fail to produce the ruinous checks.
If this positive destruction is produced in this way, in steel containing enough
carbon to harden it is clear that similar, although not so pronounced, results will
be produced in the mildest steels when they are treated in the same manner.
The rule, then, should be: Never allow water to come in contact with hot steel,
and never allow hot steel to be laid down upon a damp floor.
Even the spray from water which is run upon roll-necks may cause these
checks in steel that is passing through the rolls, so that it is better to put up a
guard to deflect such water away from the body of the roll.
A hammerman may sweep a bar with a damp broom to cause the vapor to
explode with violence when the hammer comes down, and so tear away all rough
scale and produce a beautiful finish. A careful, skilful man may be permitted to do
this, but as surely as he gets his broom too wet, so that drops of water will fall on
the steel and whirl around in the spheroidal condition, just so surely will he check
the steel.
The best way is to have the broom not wet enough to drip, and then to strike it
up against the top die when it is ready to descend; sufficient moisture will be
caught upon the die to cause a loud explosion when it strikes the hot steel; it is a
violent explosion and will drive off every particle of detachable scale, leaving as
beautiful a surface as that which is peculiar to Russia sheet iron.
It is common in rolling tires to run jets of water over the tire to break up the
scale and produce a clean surface. Tire-makers assert that experience shows
that the water does no harm. There are two reasons for this if it be true: first, the
steel is of medium carbon and more inert than high steel, and it has been
hammered and compacted before rolling; second, the tires are usually turned,
and this would cut away any little checks that might occur on the surface.
The magnetic properties of steel are well known. Soft steel, like soft wrought
iron, cannot be magnetized permanently; higher carbon steel will retain
magnetism a long time, and hardened steel will retain it still longer. Hardened-
steel magnets are the most permanent.
The permanency and the efficiency of a magnet increase with the quantity of
carbon up to about 85 carbon; steel of higher carbon than this will not make
magnets of so good permanency. The efficiency of a magnet of 85 carbon is
increased largely by the addition of a little tungsten; a little less than .05% is
sufficient.
It has been shown that tungsten has the property of retaining the hardness of
steel up to a relatively high temperature; this additional power of retaining
magnetism may indicate a close relation between the conditions set up by
magnetism and by hardening.
It has been stated that maximum physical properties, except as to
compression, are found at from 90 to 100 carbon; now we find maximum
magnetic properties in the same region. Prof. Arnold has found by microscopic
tests the same point of saturation; he fixes it at 89 carbon and deduces from it an
unstable carbide of Fe₂₄C.
The magnetic maximum was found by magnet-makers by actual use in large
numbers of magnets. Prof. J. W. Langley found the same maximum in a series of
careful and delicate experiments undertaken to determine the best composition
and the best treatment for the production of permanent magnets. Magnetism is
affected by temperature, and it is found that steel becomes non-magnetic at or
about the point of recalescence. This is important to electricians, as it marks the
limit of temperature that is available to them. It is of interest to the scientists, as it
is another indication of the importance of the changes that take place at this
temperature. Later, recalescence will be found to be an equally important point to
the steel-worker, especially to the temperer.
It has been stated that if a bar of steel be heated to any visible temperature
and then be cooled without disturbance there will be a resulting grain or structure
that is due to the highest temperature to which the bar was subjected. As a rule
the highest temperature leaves a grain that appears to the eye to be the largest,
or coarsest, whether the microscope shows it to be composed of larger crystals or
not.
Let the following squares represent the apparent sizes of the grains:
These designations are used because steel in cooling down, or in heating up,
runs through a series of yellow tints, not reds. It is common to see the expression
“glowing white” applied to steel that is not even melted, when as a matter of fact
melted wrought iron is not quite white. An occasional heat of steel may be seen
that could fairly be called white, and then the melter knows that it is altogether too
hot, and that he must cool the steel or make bad ingots. “Glowing white,” like
“cherry red,” will do for ordinary talk, but not for accurate description, although
“cherry red” comes nearer to describing the dying color than “glowing white”
comes to describing the highest heat.
An arc light may be “glowing white,” and sunlight is “glowing white,” and when
either light falls upon melted steel it shows how far the steel is from being
“glowing white.”
Referring to the squares: If a bar that has been heated to No. 8 be re-heated
to No. 2 and be kept at that color a few minutes to allow the steel to arrange itself,
in other words, to provide for lag, and then be cooled, it will be found to have
grain No. 2. Sometimes in performing this experiment the fracture will be
interspersed with brilliant spots as if it were set with gems; this shows that not
quite enough time was allowed for lag. Another trial with a little more time will
bring it to a complete No. 2 fracture. If now it be heated to No. 4, or 5, or 6 in the
same way, it will be found to have when cold the grain due to No. 4, or 5, or 6
temperature.
This may be repeated any number of times, and the changes may be rung on
all of the numbers, until the disintegrating effect of numerous heatings begins to
destroy the steel. This property of registering temperature, this steel thermometer,
is of great value, and it will be referred to frequently.
TABLE I
Character Ingot Numbers.
of
Steel. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
.302 .490 .529 .649 .801 .841 .867 .871 .955
Carbon 1.079
1.005 1.058
Silicon .019 .034 .043 .039 .029 .039 .057 .053 .059 .088 .120 .039
Phosphorus .047 .005 .047 .030 .035 .024 .014 .024 .070 .034 .064 .044
Sulphur .018 .016 .018 .012 .016 .010 .018 .012 .016 .012 .006 .004
Sp. gr. 7.807 7.808
7.805
ingots. 7.855 7.836 7.841 7.829 7.838 7.824 7.819 7.818 7.813
Sp. gr.
bars,
burned, 1 7.818 7.791 7.789 7.752 7.744 7.690
2 7.814 7.811 7.784 7.755 7.749 7.741
3 7.823 7.830 7.780 7.758 7.755 7.769
4 7.826 7.849 7.808 7.773 7.789 7.798
5 7.881 7.806 7.812 7.790 7.812 7.811
cold, 6 7.844 7.824 7.829 7.825 7.826 7.825
Diff. 6-1 .025 .034 .040 .073 .082 .135
Mean diff.
.071
of carbon
The twelve ingots treated here were first selected by ocular inspection for
carbons; the carbons were then determined by combustion analyses.
It will be seen that the inspection was correct, and that the mean difference in
carbon between consecutive numbers is .007. Between Nos. 7 and 8 there is a
difference of only .004; when the analyst discovered this, he asked for a
reinspection, not giving any reason for his request. The inspectors made new
fractures, examined the ingots carefully in good light, and reported that they erred
the first time, that both ingots belonged in the same temper number, but that if
there were any difference No. 8 was the harder. It is not claimed that a difference
of .004 is really observable.
The contents of silicon, phosphorus, and sulphur show clearly that the
controlling element is carbon. This experiment has been repeated a number of
times, and always with the same result, showing that there is no uncertainty in
this method of separating tempers.
Parts of these ingots were reduced to ¾-inch round bars. The specific
gravities of the ingots were taken, showing generally a reduction of sp. gr. for an
increase of carbon. No. 3 and 5 are anomalous; an explanation of this could
doubtless have been found if a careful investigation had been made, but there
was no re-examination.
The sp. gr. No. 6 are of the ¾-inch bars as they came from the rolls; they are
all heavier than the ingots except No. 4, and they are of nearly uniform sp. gr.;
this is due doubtless to the fact that the higher carbon steels are so much harder
than the low-carbon steels that it required much more work to reduce them to the
bars, and as hot-working increases density, the densities of the higher carbons
were increased more than those of the lower.
The bars were nicked six times at intervals of about ¾-inch and then heated
so that the ends were scintillating, ready to pass into the granular condition, and
the heat was so regulated as to have each piece less hot than the piece next
nearer to the end, the last piece, No. 6, being black and as nearly cold as
possible.
It is manifest that this operation is subject to the error of accidentally getting
No. 2, for instance, hotter than No. 1, and so on, so that perfect regularity is not to
be expected; to obtain a true rule of expansion it would be necessary to make
hundreds of such experiments and use the mean of all.
It will be noticed that No. 4 is abnormal in the ingot series, and that the No. 6
piece of No. 4 is abnormal in being lighter than the ingot; probably this No. 6 of
No. 4 was hot when it was intended to be cold. Also No. 2 of ingot No. 3 is lighter
than its No. 1, showing another irregularity in heating.
Taking the whole list of No. 1 pieces, they are all lighter than their respective
No. 6 pieces; the differences of sp. gr. 6-1 are progressive, being only .025 for the
No. 3 ingot and .135 for the No. 12 ingot. This shows clearly that expansion due
to a given difference in temperature is much greater in high steel than in low
steel.
This clears away the mystery of the so-called treachery of high steel, its
tendency to crack when hardened. There is no treachery about it; it is very
sensitive to temperature, and it must be treated accordingly.
A few examples will now be given to show the changes of tensile strength,
ductility, etc., that may be had by differences of carbon, and by differences of
treatment, annealing, hardening, and tempering.
TABLE II
Crucible
Character Crucible Crucible Crucible
Crucible ½-in.
of O. H. O. H. O. H. O. H. Eye-bar, Eye-bar, Eye-bar,
Sheet Drawn
Steel. 2″ × 1″. 2″ × 1″. 2″ × 1″.
Wire.
.09 to .96 1.15
Carbon .435 .50 .60 .70 1.35 1.40
.12
Silicon .008 .014 .025 .156 < .02
Phosphorus .007 .050 .016 .008 < .02
Sulphur .026 .028 .028 .015 trace
Manganese .055 .204 .325 .24 < .30
Tensile
strength,
lbs. per sq. 46800 73142 84220 124800 100733 117710 141500
108800 117400
in.
Elastic limit 30900 63560 71500 69980 65000 85087 69850 92420
in 2 in 1 25% 14.5% 11.5% 4.75% .5% 7.28 at 2%
Elongation
in. 41% in. 2.85 in
42% 2½
75.85% 62.3% 29.91% 13.03% 2.42%
Reduction of
13.55% 8.59%
area
broke
in neck broke broke
silky
Fracture slight in head in
½
cup flaw, close grip
fine grain
grain
BURNING IN HEATING.
When a piece of steel breaks and shows a coarse, fiery fracture,
it is common to say that it is burned. This is not necessarily the case.
There are several degrees in the effects of heat. The first is the
raising of the grain; the second, in high steel, is the decarbonizing or
burning out of carbon from the surface in, the depth of the
decarbonizing depending upon time and temperature; the third is
oxidizing, or actual burning in the common acceptance of the term.
All of these operations go on to a slight extent every time a piece
of steel is heated, but when the heating is done carefully there is
only a small film of steel that is decarbonized and oxidized, and this
film flies off when the piece is quenched for hardening. When the
steel is forged or rolled this skin will be united firmly to the steel, and
it will be thinner or thicker, according to the number of heatings and
the time of exposure to the fire. In tool-making this skin must always
be removed. Many an expensive tool is made perfectly worthless by
not having this skin all removed, owing usually to mistaken economy.
The steel is expensive, and the tool-maker does not wish to cut it up
into worthless chips.
When a tool costing, say, twenty-five dollars is made useless by
failure to cut away twenty-five cents’ worth of useless skin, the
economy of such an operation requires no discussion. It is
impossible to forge a piece of steel without producing such a skin,
and it is well known that decarbonized iron will not harden.
Ordinarily a cut of ¹/₁₆ of an inch should remove such a skin on
straight rolled or hammered bars. In the case of a shaped forging
where many re-heatings have been required the forgeman will have
done good work if the cutting away of ⅛ of an inch will present a
good surface: tool-makers should consider this and allow for it. On
the other hand, if a tool-maker finds that the removal of ⅛ of an inch
from a bar, or ¼ of an inch from a forging will not yield him a good,
hard surface, he should hold the steel-maker responsible for bad
work.
Actual burning reveals itself in rough tears, and cracks at the
surface and corners of the piece. Such a piece should go to the
scrap heap.
Overheated steel of coarse, fiery grain has been injured, and not
necessarily destroyed. Such a piece may be restored to any fineness
of grain by heating to the right temperature—medium orange for the
best grain—keeping it at that heat for, say, one minute for a little
piece, and five to ten or fifteen minutes for a large piece. The heat
should penetrate the whole mass, and it should not be allowed to run
above the given color in any part, not even for a moment. It should
then be allowed to cool in a dry place, without disturbance. The grain
will now be fine and uniform, and the steel may be worked in the
ordinary way.
This simple operation is all that is necessary to restore to a fine
grain any piece of steel that has been overheated, provided that the
piece has not been actually burned nor ruptured.
VII.
ANNEALING.