Republican presidential hopeful John McCain leads presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a slim margin in the latest poll of Colorado voters, continuing a trend seen in a poll last month.
Although the two are statistically tied, McCain holds a 1-percent advantage over Obama in the poll released today by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Asked whom they would pick if the election were held today, 47 percent of voters chose McCain over 46 percent for Obama.
A July Quinnipiac poll showed McCain with support from 46 percent of likely Colorado voters, compare to 44 percent for Obama.
The polling group is tracking Colorado because it reflects attitudes in the Rocky Mountain West.
“Colorado is one of the most important battleground states that will decide the presidency as Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama slug it out nose to nose,” said Peter Brown, assistant director at the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “If the national election is close in November, a handful of voters in Colorado will be decisive.”
President Bush won Colorado in both 2000 and 2004. The state has nine electoral votes.
The latest poll, conducted Aug. 15-21, surveyed 1,060 likely voters and had a 3-percent margin of error.
Asked whether they’d made up their mind about their vote, 83 percent of those polled said yes, vs 16 percent who said they might change their decision.
One of the more significant parts of the poll is the continuing trend toward McCain and away from Obama. McCain has been able to downplay his two biggest negatives, his age and that he’s a Republican when President Bush’s approval rating in the poll was 30 percent.
“(McCain) has done a reasonably good job of convincing a lot of people that he’s not joined at the hip with George Bush,” Brown said.
Troubling for Obama, the poll showed the positive perception of him has dropped significantly since June. In the most recent poll, 48 percent of voters had a positive perception of Obama, down from 53 percent in June.
Negative television advertisements in Colorado seem to be helping McCain, Brown said.
“People say they don’t like negative ads but they watch them and they work,” Brown said.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia also may have helped McCain, Brown said, with people perceiving he is more able to handle international events.
The convention likely will help Obama, giving him a “bump” because of the publicity he’ll get, Brown said.
The poll (www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1208) also does not reflect any voter sentiment about the selection of Sen. Joe Biden as the vice-presidential nominee. But people traditionally do not vote based on the V.P. pick, Brown said.
In the poll Independent voters split between the two candidates, with 46 percent favoring McCain to Obama’s 44 percent. Democrats back Obama 86 percent and Republicans pick McCain 88 percent.
McCain leads among men, 55 percent to Obama’s 38 percent, while Obama has the edge with women, 54 percent to McCain’s 39 percent.
“It’s very large,” Brown said of the gender gap.
Democrats traditionally attract more female voters while Republicans typically get more men, Brown said.
White voters in the poll preferred McCain 52 percent to Obama’s 42 percent, while Latinos favored Obama 65 percent to McCain’s 23 percent. The big question, Brown said, is whether large numbers of Latinos will turn out at the polls on election day.
Young voters in the poll, ages 18 to 34, preferred Obama 50 percent vs. 43 percent for McCain. Voters ages 35 to 54 split almost evenly, with 48 percent for McCain and 47 percent for Obama. McCain held the edge with voters 55 and older. They picked him 48 percent to Obama’s 42 percent.
Asked about the main issue on which they would vote, 48 percent of those polled said the economy, with Iraq, the next closest answer garnering only 16 percent of those polled.
Asked whom they most trust to handle the economy, voters picked Obama 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent.
