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Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium

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7 Historical Floods in Europe in the
Past Millennium
RUDOLF BRÁZDIL1, ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ2,
GERARDO BENITO3, GASTON DEMARÉE4, NEIL MACDONALD5 &
LARS A. ROALD6

7.1 INTRODUCTION
Floods are extreme natural events that may have disastrous impacts on human
societies. Most catastrophic floods are rare, i.e. are characterised by long recurrence
intervals, which means that in order to study patterns of occurrence and to credibly
estimate flood risk it is critical to use information gathered over centennial and even
millennial time scales. In practice, most flood hazard analyses are based on systematic
records from instrumental hydrological observation, which are typically short in length,
most instrumental series starting in the 20th century. Moreover, it is commonly
recognized that this short record of flooding limits understanding and the potential
analysis of flood response to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, we need
baseline information prior to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases. Predicting the magnitude of a low probability flood (e.g.
probability of exceedence being 0.1%, i.e. a 1000-year flood for dam design) using a
short instrumental series is unrealistic and liable to generate unreliable results (Knox &
Kundzewicz, 1997; Midttømme & Tingvold, 2002). Yet, in a modern, highly risk-
averse society, design recurrence intervals of 10 000 years or more are required when
planning the construction of large infrastructures (e.g. cooling systems for nuclear
power plants). We would have greater confidence in the hazard estimates if the
available time series were longer, and so an alternative approach is required for
improving data availability.
In order to extend the instrumental database into the more remote past, we have to
work with proxy data derived from palaeoflood hydrology (e.g. Baker, 1989, 2003;
Benito, 2003; Benito et al., 2004) or historical hydrology (Brázdil et al., 2006c). The
former can provide reconstructions for floods that occurred during recent centuries, or
even millennia ago, based on physical flood indicators, including various types of
geological evidence (flood deposits and geomorphic features, e.g. Werritty et al., 2006)

1
Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic and Global Change Research
Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
2
Institute of Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland, and
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
3
National Museum of Natural Sciences – CSIC, Madrid, Spain
4
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
5
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
6
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway
122 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

and flotsam deposits, as well as physical effects on vegetation (Baker, 2008). The latter
was defined by Brázdil et al. (2006c) as a research field situated at the interface of
hydrology and (environmental) history, dealing mainly with man-made documentary
sources and using both hydrological and historical methodologies directed towards the
following three objectives:
(i) reconstructing temporal and spatial patterns of runoff conditions, as well as
extreme hydrological events (floods, ice phenomena, hydrological droughts) for
the period prior to the creation of national hydrological observation networks;
(ii) investigating the vulnerability of past societies and economies to extreme
hydrological events;
(iii) exploration of past discourses and the social impacts of extreme hydrological
events.
For some events (e.g. the catastrophic flood in July 1342 in the Rhine catchment) we
have both palaeorecords and documentary sources.
This Chapter focuses on point (i), the study of historical floods as events
documented by indirect (non-instrumental) means of human observation, through a
variety of different documentary sources. Great progress in the study of historical
floods in Europe was achieved during the 1990s–2000s, which is reflected in the
special issue “Historical Hydrology” of Hydrological Sciences Journal (Brázdil &
Kundzewicz, 2006). Many papers have reported the creation of long-term series of
historical flooding covering the past millennium for rivers in various European
countries (e.g. Pfister, 1988, 1999; Pfister & Hächler, 1991; Pavese et al., 1992;
Buisman & van Engelen, 1994; Kotyza et al., 1995; Benito et al., 1996, 2003a, 2010;
Camuffo & Enzi, 1996; Gees, 1997; Krahe, 1997; Barriendos & Martín-Vide, 1998;
Brázdil, 1998; Guidoboni, 1998; Brázdil et al., 1999, 2004, 2005, 2006a, 2011b,c;
Brázdil & Bukáček, 2000; Schmidt, 2000; Tol & Langen, 2000; Glaser, 2001, 2008;
Sturm et al., 2001; Alessandroni & Remedia, 2002; Deutsch & Pörtge, 2002; Coeur,
2003b; Glaser & Stangl, 2003, 2004; Llasat et al., 2003, 2005; Mudelsee et al., 2003,
2004, 2006; Rohr, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007; Strömmer, 2003; Deutsch et al., 2004,
2010; Pohl, 2004; Vaquero, 2004; Wanner et al., 2004; Barriendos & Rodrigo, 2006;
Böhm & Wetzel, 2006; Cyberski et al., 2006; De Kraker, 2006; Brázdil & Kirchner,
2007; Kiss, 2007; Petrić & Obadić, 2007; Kiss et al., 2008; Elleder, 2010b; Glaser et
al., 2010; Macdonald & Black, 2010), or on the study of individual disastrous flooding
events (e.g. Glaser & Hagerdorn, 1990; Fügner, 1995; Militzer et al., 1999; Deutsch,
2000; Munzar, 2000, 2003; Tetzlaff et al., 2001; Munzar et al., 2005; Brázdil et al.,
2006b, 2010; Bürger et al., 2006; Demarée, 2006; Kronsbein, 2006; Elleder, 2007,
2010a; Kiss, 2009b; Wetter et al., 2011). These analyses have addressed fluctuations in
the frequency and severity of floods, their seasonality, synoptic causes, as well as
human impacts.
This Chapter focuses on floods in Europe derived from documentary evidence
during the past millennium. Section 7.2 discusses the beginnings of early-instrumental
and systematic-instrumental hydrological observations in Europe. Section 7.3 describes
basic sources of documentary evidence related to floods and the problems that may be
encountered in the use of historical source materials. Section 7.4 presents an overview
of documentary-based flood research in the form of long-term frequency and severity
series, as well as a summary of the most disastrous floods in the Mediterranean,
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 123

Western, Central and Northern Europe. The penultimate section discusses the role and
value of floods described in the documentary record towards better understanding of
current flood risks in Europe, and is followed by the concluding remarks.

7.2 BEGINNINGS OF INSTRUMENTAL HYDROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS


The concept of the hydrological cycle has evolved from Antiquity to Modern Times.
One of the major problems between the end of the 17th century and the beginning of
the 19th century was to establish a water balance by separate estimations of
precipitation, evaporation and runoff. The French scholar Pierre Perrault (1608–1680)
was the first to estimate water balance, using the Upper Seine catchment in 1674
(Perrault, 1674, 1996). Similar work, on a larger part of the Seine catchment, was
undertaken by Edmé Mariotte (1620–1684) and published after his death in 1686
(Mariotte, 1686). In England, Edmond Halley (1656–1742) and later John Dalton
(1766–1844) concentrated on the evaporation aspects of the hydrological cycle. To
complete such studies scientists had to produce estimates of river discharges – part of
which is the estimation of flood discharges (Dooge, 1959, 2004; Kolupaila, 1961;
Biswas, 1970; UNESCO, 1974a,b,c). Although in the 20th century the term
“hydrometry” was considered to mean “streamflow measurement”, the broad term
“hydrological measurements” currently denotes all measurements of the hydrological
cycle (Herschy, 2007).
The ancient Egyptians used gauges like the Rhoda nilometer at Cairo to observe
the water levels of the River Nile for water management, e.g. irrigation (Popper, 1951;
Sezgin, 2001). The nilometer on the island of Rhoda in central Cairo dates back to
AD 861. The Romans are also known to have used bridges as observation sites of
water level (Albenga, 1940; Reindl, 1940). During extremely high floods, water marks
indicating the maximum water level together with a datum were made, often on bridges
or houses and occasionally on rock outcrops (see e.g. Deutsch & Pörtge, 2009a, for the
flood-marks in Thüringen, Germany). However, the Era of Enlightenment saw the
expansion of flood level measurement as individuals sought to measure and understand
nature through the application of rational ideas. Measuring the variables, comparing
observations, cataloguing information and publishing the results became the main
activities of the 18th century scientists. At the same time, the first tools and instruments
for making observations and measurements of river level and flow were constructed. In
the case of river discharge the problem results in two related aspects, namely water
level and the estimation of flow velocity.

7.2.1 Water-level observations


The first variable measured in rivers was the water level. Early water-level readings
were taken at Magdeburg on the River Elbe in 1727 (Maass, 1870). By about 1770,
gauges were installed on large rivers in Germany like the Rhine and the Oder,
primarily in the interest of shipping activities and flood protection measures, but also
for scientific purposes (Rohde, 1968a,b; Eckholdt, 1970, 1971, 1974). Lange (1952,
1960) lists the early gauges and the years in which they were installed at Düsseldorf on
the River Rhine (1766), at Szczecin [Stettin] on the River Oder (1771), at Mannheim
on the confluence of the rivers Rhine and Neckar (1801), at Baltiysk [Pillau in former
East Prussia] (1802) and at Dresden on the River Elbe (1805). However, the beginning
124 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

of the gauge at Dresden dates back to 1776 as Christian Gottlieb Pötzsch (1732–1805),
together with C. G. Krahl and Zeichenmeister, installed a gauge at Meiβen in 1775 and
the following year Pötzsch installed another one on the Augustus Bridge in Dresden,
both of them on the River Elbe (Pötzsch, 1777; Rohde, 1968a,b). Pötzsch (1784, pp.
186–187) mentions that Günther, the mechanic at the Moravian Brethren Seminar in
Barby, began observing the water level of the River Elbe in 1753 (Fig. 1). On Polish
lands, the first water-level observations were undertaken on the River Wisła [Vistula,
Weichsel] near Kwidzyn [Marienwerder] from 1809, at Kraków [Cracow, Krakau]
from 1816 (Kresser, 1950) and on the River Warta at Poznań (Most Rocha) from 1822.

Fig. 1 Title page of the book by C. G. Pötzsch “Chronologische Geschichte der


grossen Wasserfluthen des Elbstroms seit tausend und mehr Jahren” (courtesy
Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München).

Several water-level measurements were undertaken at meteorological stations


included in the network of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina (Ephemerides, 1782–
1792; Traumüller, 1885; Kington, 1974; Cappel, 1980). For example, for the River
Danube at Buda the water levels were published in the Ephemerides of this society.
Intermittent records of flood heights can be found in Prague since 1775 (River Vltava),
in the records of the Prague-Klementinum meteorological observatory. But regular
water-level observations began in Prague 50 years later (from 1825) thanks to the city
administration. Hydrological stations were also established at Mělník, Litoměřice, Ústí
nad Labem and Děčín on the “imperial” rivers (the Vltava and the Elbe) from 1851
(see Brázdil et al., 2005).
In Austria, water-level measurements are also available for the River Danube in
Vienna-Tabor since 1 January 1784. The Vienna-Tabor measurements were carried out
under the direction of the K. u. K. Wasserbau-Administrator Jean-Baptiste Bréquin
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 125

(1712–1785) and were published in the Wiener Zeitung until his death in January 1785
(Schönburg-Hartenstein & Zedinger, 2004). Later on, regular water-level observations
at the Franz Bridge of the Vienna Canal were published in the Wiener Zeitung from
1 May 1811, followed by observations from the Danube Bridge, also named Tabor
Bridge, from 1 April 1826. Observations of water level in the River Danube were also
undertaken at Linz from 1821. Several other staff gauge observations of the Danube
water level followed: Stein, Vienna-Nuβdorf and Vienna-Kuchelau (1828), Melk
(1831), Struden (1841), Tulln and Zwentendorf (1844), Fischamend and Hainburg
(1846), and Mauthausen (1847) (Kresser, 1950). The Danube water-level observations
at the Bratislava Bridge (Slovakia) were published in the Preβburger Zeitung (e.g. the
years 1819 and 1820). In Hungary, the readings of the gauge at Buda were published in
the newspapers from 1 May 1817 onwards (Lászlóffy, 1974).
Regular daily hydrological readings were undertaken at a gauge installed near the
pier “Schiffländte” on the River Rhine at Basel from 1808 (Ghezzi, 1926; Rima, 1962;
Pfister et al., 2006). Escher (1821) mentions the existence of a permanent gauge on the
River Rhône in Geneva since ca. 1803, in the room of the “hydraulic machine”, with
variations in the Rhône water level read and recorded daily by the Director of the
Machine Hydraulique.
The “Amsterdams Peil” (AP) or Amsterdam Datum was established in 1684 by
Johannes Hudde (1628–1704), Lord Mayor of Amsterdam, after a severe storm in
November 1675 that caused a storm surge in the then open Zuiderzee and the River IJ
connected to it, so that large parts of Amsterdam were flooded (van der Weele, 1971).
The zero level of the AP was established based on the average summer flood water
level in the River IJ, being 9 feet and 5 inches (2.68 m) above the water level in the
canals of Amsterdam. The positions of the staff gauges on the Dutch rivers, and even
on the Rhine at Cologne, are expressed with reference to AP (Olivier, 1867). In The
Netherlands, the military engineers and cartographers Hendrik Lotzy (1745–1773) and
his successors Philippus Hermanus Gilquin (1753–not known), Cornelis Johannes
Krayenhoff (1722–1782) and W. Doelman (1765–1806) undertook daily gauge
readings on the River Rhine at Nijmegen from 1 January 1770, with the observations
published in three volumes by the Dutch State Printing House at The Hague (Lotsy,
1772, 1782, 1806).
The first known water-level observations in Norway were undertaken in 1824 at
Minnesund on the River Vorma in eastern Norway. In the years 1824–1827, an
investigation programme on the possibilities of making the River Glomma and its
confluent Vorma navigable up to Lake Mjøsa was initiated by the Canal Directorate.
During this survey, seven gauges were installed and the results of these observations
were published. More regular water-level observations commenced during the years
1840–1850 on a number of Norwegian rivers (Otnes, 1974).
In Finland, regular water-level observations started at Lauritsala on Lake Näsijärvi
in 1843, with further gauges installed on many lakes in the course of canalisation (e.g.
the gauge record at Lake Saimaa started in 1847). Discharge measurements were
sporadically performed from the 1860s onwards (Sirén, 1974; Kuusisto, 2001).
In Spain, the first daily gauge records started in 1885 at the Puentes Reservoir in the
Guadalentín River (Machado et al., 2011), although temporally and spatially scattered,
discharge readings by the so called “hydrological brigades” of the General Statistical
Commission began earlier, in 1862–1865 (Mateu, 1996), with additional recording
126 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

undertaken following the establishment of the main Water Basin Authorities (1865–1876),
although daily water stage readings were not extended throughout Spain until 1912.
In Portugal, the oldest hydrometric observations are those for the Vila Velha de
Rodão (River Tagus) and Regua (River Douro), with inconsistent readings since 1852
and continuous daily data since 1900 (Daveau et al., 1978).
In Italy, a hydrometer was installed in the fluvial port of Ripetta in Rome to
observe the water levels of the River Tiber. The observations began in 1782 at the
initiative of Abbot Giuseppe Calandrelli, Director of the Astronomical and
Meteorological Observatory of the Collegio Romano. The early daily water-level
observations were published in the yearbooks of the Societas Meteorologica Palatina
(Ephemerides, 1782–1792; Di Ricco, 1926).
In 1806, Carl Friedrich von Wiebeking (1762–1842) published in the Pfalz
(Bavaria) official instructions for the building and reading of water-level gauges, at the
time called “Wassermerkpfähle” (watermark stakes). From 1806 onwards, numerous
gauges were installed on the rivers Isar, Danube and Rhine (Göttle et al., 2010).
Johann Albert Eytelwein (1764–1848), was the Prussian “Geheim Oberbaurat”
(privy Head Construction Counsellor), and was concerned with the diversity of
approaches and treatment of the water markers along several rivers in Prussia. On
27 July 1809 he produced a report in which he recommended that all water-level
gauges and readings be standardised. On 12 August 1809 in Königsberg, the King of
Prussia set up an inquiry, which on 13 February 1810, under the guidance of Friedrich
Alexander Graf zu Dohna, Prussian Minister of the Interior, issued: “Instructions for
installing gauges at rivers and other surface waters, for the observation of the water
level, and the collection and presentation of the measured values”. The German term
“Pegel” (gauge) in these instructions replaced the term “Wassermarqueur” (water-
marker) henceforth. In the instructions, it was specified that the zero point should be
assumed to be about 2 feet (about 60 cm) below the lowest low water level. The water
levels observed once a day between 12 and 13 o’clock had to be recorded in a monthly
table together with other meteorological and hydrological information. After the
Napoleonic Wars, these Instructions were introduced to the new regions of Prussia in
May 1816. The administration of the Prussian Province of Saxony, set up between
1811 and 1820, included 25 gauging stations, among them Torgau, Wittenberg and
Magdeburg on the River Elbe, Weiβenfels, Naumburg and Halle on the River Saale,
and Sachsenburg, Nebra and Freyburg on the River Unstrut. The enactment of the
water-level regulations of 1810 was of the utmost importance for the development of
hydrometry in Germany. On 14 September 1871 a new regulation was issued for gauge
measurements at the so-called “Hauptpegeln” (main gauges) in Prussia, in which the
metric system was introduced with a subdivision of 2 cm (Jacoby, 1925; Eckholdt,
1965, 1970; Fügner, 1990; Bjarsch et al., 2007; Deutsch, 2007, 2010; Deutsch &
Pörtge, 2009b).
Hermann Berghaus (1797–1848) undertook an analysis of stage observations in
Germany, “Hydro-historical Survey of the State”, which focused on the rivers Rhine,
Lower Rhine, Elbe and Oder, using for the Rhine the gauge observations at Emmerich
(1770–1836) and at Cologne (1782–1836), for the Elbe the observations (1728–1836)
at the Magdeburg gauge, and for the Oder the observations (1778–1834) at the Küstrin
[Kostrzyn nad Odrą] gauge (Berghaus, 1837). Kluge (1874) analysed the gauge
observations of the River Rhine at Cologne for the period 1817–1873.
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 127

According to Arago (1859), the “Journal [manuscript] des crues et diminutions de


la Seine observées au pont de la Tournelle” provides regular water-level observations
at Paris since 1732. Furthermore, another gauge situated at Tuileries Bridge provides
corroborative readings which were 0.80 m (or 0.84 m) higher. The low water level of
1719 was taken as zero, with previous historical flood marks measured from this point
(Histoire de l’Académie, 1722).
The River Meuse flows through France (Upper Meuse), Belgium (Middle Meuse)
and The Netherlands (Lower Meuse); the earliest gauge, which was installed in 1782,
is situated at Grave on the lower part of the river. In the era of the (United) Kingdom of
the Netherlands (1815–1830), a gauge was placed on Maastricht Bridge, which
provided daily water-level observations from 1 January 1821 (Pierrot, 1891a). In
Belgium, regular gauging observations of the Middle Meuse River were undertaken by
the administration “Ponts et Chaussées” of the Ministry of Public Works. Gauges were
installed on bridges crossing the River Meuse at Dinant and Huy, while the gauges at
Namur and on the Pont-des-Arches at Liège were repaired in the summer of 1842, and
another gauge existed at Chokier (Seraing, upstream from Liège), from which daily
water levels were recorded (Guillery, 1844, 1846, 1847). Around the turn of the 19th
century, there were gauging stations at Liège, Visé, Maaseik on the River Meuse and
Chênée on the River Ourthe. At the creation of the climatological network of the Royal
Meteorological Institute of Belgium, ca. 1880, by Jean-Charles Houzeau de Lehaie
(1820–1888), water-level observations were included alongside precipitation records
by the Ministry of Public Works (Demarée, 1996). A study by Bijls (1922) of River
Meuse water levels for the 31-year period (1880–1910) at the Maaseik gauge showed
good relationships with the water levels from the gauge at Hocht (Lanaken), below
Maastricht, on the shared Belgian–Dutch Meuse River; this study was extended by
Jodogne (1947) for the period 1870–1945.
The development of mechanical and later electrical recording in gauges was
important for continuous observations. Many of the early developments in gauges
result from work undertaken on tidal gauges, with instruments originally developed to
register the rapidly oscillating tidal water levels of large rivers like the Thames and
Avon in England. The demands of sea and fluvial transport necessitated the
development of such instruments for improved dock management and maintenance.
Palmer (1831) published a description of a mechanical floating gauge for measuring
tides and winds, with the new tidal gauge described by Bunt (1838) installed on the
River Avon at Bristol in 1837. The English example of recording tidal gauges was not
immediately followed on the Continent, but in the 1860s and early 1870s tidal gauges
were installed on the Weser in Bremen, on the Elbe in Hamburg and at Cuxhaven
(Stehr, 1964). Finally, the first recording gauge on the River Rhine, built by C. B. Kappert
of Bremen, was installed at Koblenz in 1888 (Lange, 1952). Around the turn of the
19th century, numerous recording gauges were operational in Germany. In Belgium, a
recording gauge designed by François Van Rysselberghe and constructed by the
mechanic Theodore Schubart of the University of Ghent was already operating in 1882
in the harbour at Ostend (Rohns, 1882; Dufour, 1939).
The earliest records of river or sea level within the UK were made by Jeremiah
Horrocks (1619–1641). Shortly before his death he started making measurements of
high tides on the Mersey coast near his home in Toxteth (part of present-day
Liverpool). Unfortunately the measurements were lost, during either the civil war or
128 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

possibly in the Great Fire of London (1666) (POL, 2008). Almost a century later,
William Hutchinson (1716–1801) compiled the first set of sea-level measurements in
the UK. His measurements included heights and times of every high water during
1764–1793 together with a comprehensive set of meteorological data for Liverpool Old
Dock (Woodworth, 1998). These early records were used from 1770 in the publication
of the Liverpool tide times by Richard & George Holden, and were published for over
200 years. During the 19th century the Mersey Docks & Harbour Board established an
impressive network of a dozen state-of-the-art sea-level stations on the Mersey–Dee
and neighbouring coasts.
The first daily record of river flow comes from Teddington on the Thames in
1883; initially the water level was read from a stage-board, which was upgraded to an
autographic recorder in 1891, a single-path ultrasonic station 2-km upstream
(Kingston) in 1974 and, finally, a multi-beam ultrasonic station in 1986 (Institute of
Hydrology, 1986). The earliest series of annual maximum records of flooding are
available for York from 1877 (Macdonald & Black, 2010); these records are based
initially on visual readings of the water level measured from a stage-board, suggesting
that earlier records may have existed, but were subsequently lost.

7.2.2 Streamflow observations


Once the challenge of water-level (stage) recording had been overcome, attention
turned to the measurement of flow velocity. A review of the history of hydraulics is
provided by Rouse & Ince (1957/1963), while Kolupaila (1961) provides an excellent
overview on the bibliography of the subject. At the beginning of the 19th century, flow
velocity was not considered primarily as a factor for the determination of discharge of a
river, but, rather as information important to shipping, hydraulic engineering activities
and hydrodynamic research. The knowledge of water levels was still largely sufficient
for the evaluation of the water regime of a river. Furthermore, the measurement of river
discharge was a tedious and labour-intensive process. For instance, the discharge
calculation in 1821 of the River Rhine at Basel by Hans Conrad Escher von der Linth
(1767–1823) used flow velocity measurements carried out in 1793, using floats
(Escher, 1821; Eckholdt, 1974).
Some of the earliest work examining flow velocity was undertaken by Benedict
Castelli of Brescia (1577–1644), a Benedictine monk, in which he defined (in 1628)
the concept of stream discharge as a product of the cross-section and the mean flow
velocity (Tonini, 1974; Castelli, 1996). In order to assess the velocity of the flow,
different instruments were invented in the 18th and 19th centuries. Giovanni Domenico
Guglielmini (1655–1710) is considered to be a founder of the Italian school of
hydraulics, which dominated the science in the 17th and early 18th centuries, with the
publication “The Nature of Rivers” in 1697 (Guglielmini, 1697). He used the quadrant
and ball to measure subsurface flow velocity in rivers, but produced misleading results
due to the action of the current upon the cord. In 1732, Henri de Pitot invented the
appropriate instrument, baptized the Pitot tube (Fig. 2), and used it to measure the flow
velocity under the Seine bridges in Paris (de Pitot, 1735). The rotor-type instrument
and its application were described by Woltman (1790). However, de Pitot did not use
the correct formula to compute the flow velocity; the correction was actually made by
Johann Bernouilli (1667–1748) when, in 1743, he published the theorem which is
generally ascribed to his son Daniel Bernouilli (Rouse & Ince, 1957/1963; Vischer,
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 129

2010). In Italy, hydrometric dynamometers for measuring subsurface water velocities


were developed by Michelotti (1710–1777) in 1767, Lorgna (1730–1796) in 1777, and
Ximenes (1716–1786) in 1780, by de Prony in France (unknown–1802; 1997),
Christiaan Brunings (1736–1805) in The Netherlands in 1789, while in Portugal Cabral
(1734–1811) developed in 1786 a paddle wheel, the forerunner of the vertical-axis
current meters (de Carvalho Quintela, 1991; Vischer, 2010). Progress in hydrometry in
Italy was reported in the volumes of the series “Raccolta d’autori che trattano del moto
dell’acque” (Raccolta, 1765–1774). Finally, Reinhard Woltman (1757–1837) built his
hydrometric current meter in 1786. The rotor-type instrument and its application were
described by Woltman (1790). The Woltman instrument underwent several improve-
ments and became the principal instrument of flow velocity measurement during the
20th century (Lanser, 1953; Vischer, 2010).

Fig. 2 Measurement of flow velocity with the Pitot tube, improved by M. H. Darcy
(Recherches hydrauliques, entreprises par M. H. Darcy, continuées par M. H. Bazin.
Extract from volume XIX of Mémoires présentés par divers savants à L'institut Impérial
de France, 1st part (501 p., 28 pl.): Recherches expérimentales sur l'écoulement de
l'eau dans les canaux découverts. Imprimerie impériale, Paris 1865, planche IV).

With the development of the flow velocity meter, water engineers began under-
taking discharge measurements of the larger rivers, gaining new insights to the
temporal distribution of river discharges. In Hungary, the engineer Pál Vásárhelyi
began gauging the River Danube in 1821 and published a paper on the distribution of
the velocity of flow along a vertical profile. For the gauging carried out in October
1838, he illustrated the profile of the river together with velocity measurements at all
points (Vásárhelyi, 1845; Lászlóffy, 1974). According to Kolupaila (1961), this is one
of the very first figures of its kind. The oldest discharge measurements of the River
Elbe were undertaken during the years 1820–1823 in the section between Mühlberg
and Wittenberg, using a Woltman current meter (Faist, 1969). Baumgarten (1848)
established the first discharge curve of the River Garonne in southern France in 1840.
130 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

In Belgium, stream gauging operations by observing flow velocity were undertaken on


the middle Meuse River in the mid-1840s by the Ministry of Public Works in order to
regulate the river for fluvial transport (Guillery, 1845). In the 1880s, after the floods of
December 1880, Pierrot (1891b) undertook discharge measurements on the River
Meuse using an electrical Amsler-Laffon current meter. In Germany, the discharge of
larger floods on the Rhine and Mosel were studied by Grebenau (1874), the River Oder
by O. Sasse, the River Elbe by O. Sasse and A. R. Harlacher, the River Weser near
Bremen by H. Bücking and the River Nemunas [Memel] near Sovetsk [Tilsit] by
J. Schlichting. In some cases, the establishment of the discharge of a larger river
became an international operation; a successful example was the so-called International
Rhine River Survey conducted in 1867 at Basle by the countries Baden, Bavaria,
France and Switzerland (Grebenau, 1873).
The practice of systematic gauging became possible in the last quarter of the 19th
century by the establishment of national hydrometric sevices, such as the
Hydrometrische Commission – Hydrometrische Centralbureau in Switzerland (1863/
1866), the Navigation Commission of the Ministry of Transportation in Russia (1874),
the Hydrographic Commission of the River Elbe basin in the Kingdom of Bohemia in
1875, the Centralbüro für Meteorologie und Hydrographie of the Great-Duchy of
Baden in 1883, the Hydrographical Section of the Ministry of Public Works and
Communications in Hungary (1886), the Hydrographisches Zentralbüro at Vienna
(1893), and the Hydrotechnisches Bureau in Bavaria (1898). At a basin-wide level,
Eugène Beltrand (1810–1878) was commissioned in 1854 to organize the Service
Hydrométrique du basin de la Seine with the task of forecasting floods with a lead time
of three days.
Systematic gauging in Norway started in the late 1840s, at a few locations, and the
network was gradually expanded until the Hydrology Department was organised in
1895 in order to provide data for the development of hydropower. The network of
precipitation gauges was simultaneously expanded to cover most of the larger river
basins. The hydrometric network was expanded to cover most of the larger rivers in
1916/1917 (Otnes, 1974).
However, in several European countries, systematic gauging of navigable and
non-navigable rivers only took place in the second half of the 20th century. In
Belgium, one had to wait for the establishment of the “Royal Commission for Water
Management” in 1965, headed by General Albert Crahay (1903–1991), to see the
development of systematic river gauging.
Within the UK, the first records of river flow originate in the late 19th century,
with water-level records available prior to this. Research undertaken by Captain W. N.
McClean on the River Garry at the start of the 20th century is recognised as a
significant contribution to the development of systematic river flow measurement in
the UK (Werritty, 1987), with considerable attention focused on methodological rigour
and data quality. The McClean approach to gauging was later to become the standard
practice for river gauging in the UK, a procedure in which a current meter and sinker
weight were employed. The expertise and knowledge developed by Captain McClean
resulted in his appointment as the secretary of the Committee of the British
Association, which concluded in 1933 that a systematic survey of the water resources
of Great Britain was urgently required. A severe drought during the summer of 1934
resulted in a joint approach from the British Association and the Institution of Civil
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 131

Engineers urging the Government to undertake a national water survey. The result was
the appointment of the Inland Water Survey Committee in January 1935, the date at
which the national water archive can be said to have commenced within the UK
(Werritty, 1987).

7.3 DOCUMENTARY DATA ABOUT FLOODS


Because of the relatively short period of instrumental records, documentary evidence
can be used for extending our knowledge of past floods. The term “documentary
evidence” includes all kinds of man-made sources from which several types of direct or
indirect (proxy) data can be derived. The direct data can be thought of as descriptive
documentary data, for example narrative descriptions of a flood event, including flood
level, duration, flood surge timing and inundation extent. Indirect or documentary
proxy data reflect the impact of hydrological extremes (e.g. poor harvest, reconstruction
or accounts detailing repairs to bridges or other structures following floods) (Brázdil et
al., 2006c).
The main groups of documentary data sources are (Brázdil et al., 2006c, 2010):

(i) Annals, chronicles, memory books and memoirs


These describe, with varying degrees of detail and with retrospective emotional
loading, the course of flooding, direct impacts and consequences to the local
population (material damage, human casualties). They may attempt to compare the
recent flood with other events that either the writers have themselves witnessed, or that
they have heard about. The quality and accuracy of the record depend on the
intellectual qualities of the author (e.g. background education, talent for observation,
motivation for keeping records), and also his/her relationship to the event described,
particularly whether the writer was an eye-witness. For example, a memory book kept
in the rectory at Počaply on the River Elbe in Bohemia described the 1784 flood in the
following way (Kaněra, 1900, pp. 205–206): “On 30 December 1783 froze the Elbe in
such way that by morning [31 December] it was possible go across the ice and on
28 February [1784] at midnight the ice started to break with a terrible crack.
Approximately at 5 a.m. the ice moved and went away without damage. But at 5 p.m.
the water rose so fast, that in half an hour it rose at the rectory up to the height of
2 ells [156 cm] and rose further until 11 p.m. It achieved a height of 3 ells 8 inches
[254 cm] in the rectory and remained at this level up to the evening of the following
day [29 February] … A mass on the Sunday [29 February] could not be provided
because the water in the church was 2 ells [156 cm] high …”.

(ii) Weather diaries


They sometimes contain, besides daily visual weather records or early instrumental
meteorological measurements, descriptive accounts of floods and their devastating
consequences. For instance, a number of floods were quoted between 1563 and
1582 by Jan Strialius of Pomnouš, a rector of a school at Litoměřice and then a
town scribe to České Budějovice and Žatec, for the rivers in Bohemia (Brázdil &
Kotyza, 1999). The number of such reports about floods increases in cases when
the author lived near to a watercourse, or if the flood had an immediate effect on
his activities or responsibilities (e.g. work in the fields and meadows). For
132 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

example, flooding of the River Moravia made it impossible for the monks at the
Premonstratensian abbey at Hradisko (Olomouc, Morava) to get to the town of
Olomouc (Brázdil et al., 2008). A weather diary of a Norwegian Army Captain,
Amund Bøe, covering 1788–1807 contains summaries of the weather and some
large floods, including description of weather conditions causing Storofsen in 1789
(Bøe, s.a.).

(iii) Correspondence (letters)


Correspondence often contains information concerning the views or thoughts of an
individual in relation to a flood event that occurred in his or her region. Letters may
include a description of the weather at the time and damage resulting from the flood.
This is particularly important in rural areas where alternative sources are often absent.
In several cases, letters were inserted into newspaper reports. For example, Ignác of
Ludanice wrote on 5 May 1494 from Rokytnice near Přerov to Lord Vilém of Pernštejn
(Dvorský, 1897) about a flood on the River Bečva (in the eastern part of the present
Czech Republic). The river flow was dammed at his bridge with drift material,
including the remains of barns swept away from the upstream town of Přerov.

(iv) Special prints


On the occasion of disastrous floods, special newssheets or booklets were printed and
distributed; the purpose was either to impart information about these extreme cases or
to derive some experience from them. An example may be found in a pamphlet from
the almanac of Dobřenský of 1582 (Fig. 3), which describes the capsizing of a raft on
the River Vltava in Prague during a flood on 27 February 1581, when about 150 people
drowned (Brázdil et al., 2005). A complete book was devoted to the 1829 flood of
Moray (Scotland) and the adjoining districts, with Sir Thomas Dick Lauder’s accounts
representing a detailed and vivid depiction of the extent and suffering that the flood
inflicted on the populace in the areas adjacent to the river (Lauder, 1830). The account
includes descriptions of the flood and its impact, with detailed accounts by individuals
from across the region, but also includes details of water level at a number of different
locations, permitting the present-day reader to re-assess the propagation of the flood
waters through the catchment (McEwen & Werritty, 2007); the account is supported
with a number of engraved images.

(v) Official economic and administrative records


Economic records include data collected in connection with any economic activity or
procedure that relates to flooding. Examples include expenditure for the reconst-
ruction or repair of bridges and footbridges destroyed by floods, buying material for
repairs, or requested (or granted) financial assistance to the affected (e.g. applications
for tax abatement on the grounds of damage suffered). Another important group of
reports documenting floods are those linked to the collection of taxes and applications
for their abatement on the grounds of flood damage, which may be preserved at
different levels of the state administration (e.g. Brázdil & Valášek, 2003). This
information may be cross-referenced in the archives with reports by estate
administrators to the owners of the estates, in which they often described serious
events, including natural disasters occurring on the estate and affecting its operation
(e.g. Brázdil et al., 2003).
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 133

Fig. 3 Depiction of the Vltava flood of February 1581 in Prague, when a raft carrying
about 150 people capsized (upper part); and illustration of a plague procession in
1582 from the Dobřenský almanac (Library of the Royal Premonstratensian Canonry
in Prague-Strahov, Dobřenský Codex, sign. DR I 21, opus 317).

An example of administrative records exists in the National Archives of Norway


in Oslo covering the period from the mid-17th century to 1813 (Riksen, 1969). The
Danish-Norwegian State was impoverished and could not compensate flood victims
for flood damages. A system was set up instead of commissions comprising a civil
servant (tax collector or local judge) and a number of the leading farmers in each
district. They assessed the flood damage in detail at each farm affected by the flood
and wrote reports which went to the county governor and were finally sent to the
Ministry of Finance in Copenhagen. The tax was then reduced for a number of years
by royal decree until the damage could be repaired. Local police chiefs and county
governors produced reports about floods in the 19th century after the dissolution of
the Norwegian union with Denmark and during the subsequent union with Sweden.
A wealth of information about flood damages and repair works between 1840 and
1890 comes from the Canal Directorate, the predecessor of the Norwegian Water
Resources and Energy Directorate.
134 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

(vi) Newspapers and journals


Newspapers and journals provide very important documentary information, as they
describe the courses, causes and impacts of floods and often include detailed
specification of damage. Such reports concern not only the place of the newspaper
issue, but also other places based on information from their correspondents. Also, early
instrumental water-level readings were often published in regularly issued newspapers
(see Section 7.2). Newspapers remain important for providing information about more
recent floods. For example, after the catastrophic flood on 7 August 1996, killing 87
people at a campsite located on the alluvial fan of the Arás basin in the Spanish
Pyrenees, a search in past newspapers was undertaken. Events of a similar nature were
found to have occurred previously, in August 1907 and in June 1929 (Benito et al.,
1998).
(vii) Sources of a religious nature
Floods were considered as an example of the Lord’s punishment of people for their
sins. The ancient story of Noah and his arc, described in the Old Testament, has
affected European civilization and culture (Kempe, 2003). The story illustrates an early
warning (coming from God, hence absolutely perfect, yet, conveyed only to a selected
addressee, the righteous one) and ancient biodiversity concern (saving species). The
Lord punished the sinful people, but saved the lives of those living by the rules of the
Christian religion. The biblical story of floods has analogies in other religions. Floods
have played a spectacular part in sermons. For example, comparisons were drawn in
sermons by the priests Aloys Merz of Augsburg, Christian Wilhelm Demler of Jena
and Johann Gottlob Hartmann of Eutzsch near Wittenberg (the Elbe), shortly after the
disastrous 1784 flood, to that of the biblical Noah’s flood, suggesting that the 1784
flood resulted from the sinful practices of the people in the settlements affected
(Brázdil et al., 2010).
(viii) Chronogramme
Chronogrammes were common in 18th century Western and Central Europe and were
frequently written in Latin or German verse or prose to commemorate memorable
events. In a chronogramme, specific letters are interpreted as a roman numeral (in
capital letters) and point to the year of the event. For example, the flood of the year
1740 of the River Meuse at Liège was indicated by a mark on a pillar of a monastery
together with the following chronogramme (in bold underlined): DILUVIUM FLUVII
HUC VENTI [The flood of the river came to this place/hither]. A Latin chronogramme
about the catastrophic February 1784 flood comes from the town of Linn near Krefeld
(Germany) and reads as: EXTVBERATO RHENO LINNA PER CREVELDIAM
PANE ET NAVIBVS LIBERATA EST [With the Rhine flooded, Linn has been
liberated with bread and ships by way of Krefeld.] (Creutz, 1924–1925).
(ix) Early scientific papers, compilations and communications
These include different, relatively detailed, analyses or chronologies of floods, their
occurrences, meteorological causes and impacts. A very special and well-known source
of information on historical floods is a very extensive, multi-volume compilation by
Weikinn (1958–2002), but similar collections, usually together with various weather
information, exist at the national level (see e.g. the four Antal Réthly’s volumes in
former Hungary – Kiss, 2009a). However, in using such data we have to be careful, as
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 135

they often consist of a mixture of primary and secondary sources and include possible
errors in dating of some events.
(x) Stall-keepers’ and market songs
Such songs contain reference to floods as a spectacular and dramatic topic (Scheybal,
1990). They mention disastrous floods or flash floods after thunderstorms and
torrential rains which, because of their sudden and unexpected onset, may have a high
death toll and cause extensive damage on a local or regional scale. Although the songs
may describe the event and its impact and even refer to the date of the event, one
should remain critically aware of the possible distortion of reality in the information
presented (licentia poetica). An example is the stall-keepers’ song describing the 1784
flood in Prague and Bohemia (Truchlivá novina, 1784).
(xi) Pictorial documentation
These sources can be found in a number of different forms (paintings, engravings,
etchings and photographs are the most common) created with various levels of
technical expertise that may have supplemented written reports or illustrated the events.
These pictures reminded people of the horrors of destructive floods thus evoking
respect for these events. They also warned communities of God’s possible punishment
for sins committed. Further, they fulfilled the task of generating historical memory.
Such pictures were often reflections of the author’s imagination rather than a real
representation of events (Fig. 4). For example, several contemporary pictures are

Fig. 4 A painting (oil on wood) from 1846, commemorating the tragic Elbe flood of
March 1845 in Ústí nad Labem (Museum of the City of Ústí nad Labem, Painted
shooting target, catalogue no. U 334). Its water level and discharge (also calculated)
were not reached even during the disastrous August 2002 flood.
136 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

preserved illustrating the situation during the disastrous February/March 1784 flood in
Central Europe (for Meißen, see Förster, 2001, for Würzburg, see Glaser, 2001, for
Prague, see Brázdil et al., 2005, and for Vienna, see Strömmer, 2003).
(xii) Epigraphic sources
These may contain a brief description of a flooding event or indicate the peak flood
water level. For example, flood boards placed on the stone bridge across the Třebůvka
at Moravská Třebová (Czech Republic) commemorate the levels of flash floods on
7 July 1663, after heavy rainfall (cloudbursts) caused the breaching of fishponds
resulting in 33 fatalities; a second event is also recorded on 5 September 1770 (Nisler,
1996). The maximum flood water level is often expressed by marks chiselled into stone
or marked on houses, bridges, gates, or old trees. Such watermarks should be assessed
for originality, particularly with respect to the age of the object on which they are
recorded, because the marks may have been transferred from other places (for more
details see Deutsch et al., 2006; Munzar et al., 2006; Macdonald, 2007). Some of the
watermarks or water-level observations were later used in the estimation of the
corresponding peak flood discharges (e.g. Macdonald et al., 2006). In Norway, several
flood stones based on flood marks on buildings, trees and rocks have been erected near
some of the largest rivers. The oldest flood stone was erected near River Glomma at
Elverum during a royal visit in 1784.

Evaluating floods from the documentary evidence discussed above requires


careful consideration of the changing perception of floods during the centuries.
Documentary sources may also contain either sporadic or continuously recorded flood
events. In each case it should be assessed whether the source is contemporary, i.e. did
the authors witness the events they describe, or whether these events at least occurred
during their life-time. Reports derived from other, indirect sources, or from hearsay
may well give rise to mistakes in dating and the description of past floods (e.g. Bell &
Ogilvie, 1978), which must then be eliminated by comparative analysis with other
accessible contemporary sources.

7.4 HISTORICAL FLOODS IN EUROPE IN THE PAST MILLENNIUM


This section summarises existing knowledge of historical floods in Europe based on
published papers, dividing them into a compilation of long-term flood chronologies
(Section 7.4.1) and the most catastrophic historical flood events (Section 7.4.2).

7.4.1 Long-term chronologies of floods in Europe


7.4.1.1 Western Europe
Within Western Europe, one of the challenges is in determining the mechanisms
responsible for flooding. Large parts of Belgium, Denmark, The Netherlands and parts
of the UK have historically suffered more through tidal flooding than fluvial floods
(e.g. the Christmas flood of 1717; Lamb & Frydendahl, 2005). The size of the
catchments also varies with relatively small fluvial systems in Denmark, Ireland and
the UK, and larger systems in Belgium, France and Holland. The different scales of
fluvial system and their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean result in a variety of flood
generating synoptic systems (Glaser et al., 2010), although large flood events are often
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 137

associated with slow moving depressions and snowmelt-generated events. A study by


Macdonald (2011) of the Yorkshire Ouse (UK), a large catchment in the UK context,
has determined that the role of snowmelt in high-magnitude floods appears not to have
changed since 1800. However, within this study a changing frequency of summer
floods was identified, with a higher frequency of summer floods within the period
1700–1849, than in the period 1850–1999.
Few studies have considered historical flood records in Ireland (e.g. Tyrrell &
Hickey, 1991), with no long-term spatial study or analysis of periods of increased
(decreased) flood activity nationally. One of the available studies (Dixon, 1953)
documents a number of historical floods in Ireland, but fails to provide a contextual
account of magnitude or estimated flow. A similar pattern of work exists within the
UK, with previous work focusing on constructing flood chronologies for specific sites,
often cities, e.g. Perth (Macdonald et al., 2006) and York (Macdonald & Black, 2010),
or more rarely river catchments, e.g. the River Findhorn, Scotland (McEwen &
Werritty, 2007). Previous analysis at a national scale examining historical flood series
from multiple sites was undertaken for the UK by Macdonald (2006), who determined
that no periods of increased flood activity can be clearly determined, though periods of
increased activity are present within specific catchments.
In France, a number of studies have examined flood series for specific catchments
e.g. the Ardèche and Isère rivers (Coeur & Lang, 2000), or regions, such as Agasse’s
(2003) study of Normandy floods since the 17th century. The rivers Loire and Seine
present some of the best historical flood records in France (Table 1), e.g. flooding of
the River Loire in 1707, which killed an estimated 50 000 people with flood waters
about 3 m deep in Orléans. The flooding in 1856 and 1866, and to a lesser extent 1846,
represent a short period of high-magnitude events, with a number of epigraphic
markings recorded in Orléans documenting the heights of the three floods
(http://www.reperesdecrues-seine.fr./carte.php). Floods in 1789 are associated with
causing the collapse of the bridge at Tours. The River Seine recorded a number of
high-magnitude floods in the mid-late 18th century and early 19th century, with the
flood of 1910 only exceeded by that of 1658. The 1910 flooding of Paris is one of the
largest and best recorded events of the 20th century; an extensive range of flood
markings are present throughout Paris with some compared to earlier events
(http://www.reperesdecrues-seine.fr./carte.php). The Paris flood of 1910 was docu-
mented, photographically, in special prints and hundreds of postcards illustrating
scenes of the inundated Paris that were commonly used in correspondence (Fig. 5).
For the River Meuse (Table 1), floods are recorded throughout the last millennium
(Alexandre, 1987; Buisman & van Engelen, 1994; Berlamont, 1995; Gellens, 1995; de
Wit, 2008). In 1374, the River Meuse (as well as many other rivers in Western Europe)
flooded due to rapid melting of the snowpack, coupled with heavy precipitation.
Subsequent large flood events occurred in 1643, 1740, 1784 and 1926. More recent
high water levels were recorded at Borgharen/St Pieter in December 1993, in January
1995 and in January 2003. A large part of the flooding that occurred in the river area of
The Netherlands in the period 1750–1860, and particularly on the River Waal, was
associated with ice jams, e.g. in 1781, 1784, 1799, 1805 and 1809 (Driessen, 1994).
Detailed records describing the winter ice-jam floods in 1784 are widely recorded
across much of western mainland Europe. The flood of 1784 is discussed extensively
in Demarée (2006), and linked to flooding across Europe (Brázdil et al., 2010).
138 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

Fig. 5 A collage of special prints and postcards illustrating scenes from inundated
Paris in January 1910.

Table 1 Years of major floods on catchments within Western Europe (recent events included for comparison).

Rank Ireland UK France Belgium Nether-


lands
Shannon† Leeδ Dodderξ Tayγ Severn Ouseα Thames Seineλ Loire Meuse Waalμ
(Cork)
1 1867 1853 1802 1210 1770 1263 1593 1658 1707 1374 1820
2 1954 1789 1794 1774 1795 1625 1809 1910 1856 1643 1809
3 1925 1916 1687 1621 1672 1689 1774 1740 1866 1740 1799
4 1915 2009 1380/ 1993 1774 1564 1795 1799 1846 1784 1830
1385$
5 1994 1875 1986 1607 1869 1614 1821 1802 1789 1926 1926
$ †
The ranks are based on estimates of level/flow from descriptive sources; flood attributed to differing years; no flood
records predating 1867; δ records in part taken from Tyrrell & Hickey (1991); ξ records in part taken from Dixon (1953);
γ
discharges extracted from Macdonald et al. (2006), the ice dam flood of 1814 excluded; α Macdonald & Black (2010);
λ
http://www.driee.ile-de-france.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/rubrique.php3?id_rubrique=258; μ http://www.waterbase.nl

As shown in Table 1, few floods are recorded in multiple catchments throughout


Western Europe; only 1774 is recorded on three occasions, although all of the accounts
are within the UK; a number of high-magnitude floods are recorded twice, 1740 and
1799 (France and The Netherlands), 1926 (Belgium and The Netherlands), 1789 and
1802 (Ireland and France) and 1809 (UK and The Netherlands) recorded in two
different countries, with 1795 recorded on two UK river systems. The above suggests
that the mechanisms responsible for flooding in Western Europe may be less linked
than elsewhere in Europe, with greater disparate trends evident. Years of widespread
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 139

flooding identified by Glaser et al. (2010) in Central Europe are not evident in
Western Europe, with only 1784 and 1799 recorded in both Glaser et al. (2010) and
Table 1.

7.4.1.2 Central Europe


Floods in Central Europe can be generally classified as those caused by heavy, often
long-lasting rainfall, connected with movement of cyclonic systems (floods of the
summer synoptic type), and those related to sudden warming causing intensive
snowmelt or ice flow on the frozen rivers (including the formation of ice barriers),
often accompanied by rain (mixed flood of the winter synoptic type). Whilst torrential
rainfall may cause flooding, this is often localised and has much greater impact on
smaller watercourses. Central Europe is rich in documentary evidence describing past
flood events, permitting the analysis of flood frequency, severity, seasonality, synoptic
causes and human impacts (Fig. 6). This is reflected in the wealth of papers dealing
with detailed analysis of past floods or studies compiling such information to generate
long flood chronologies (see list of references in Section 7.1).

Fig. 6 The Litoměřice Bridge, destroyed during the Elbe flood of 24 March 1814
(Regional Museum, Litoměřice, catalogue no. SV H 3820).

Brázdil et al. (1999) analysed in detail the severity and frequency of 16th century
floods in different European river catchments. They found a prevalence of flood
occurrence during the second half of the 16th century for Central European rivers.
Large Rhine floods in Basle (Switzerland) appeared, on average, every 9.5 years from
1496 until 1882, while in the following 112 years the average return period lengthened
to 18.7 years. No truly extreme flood event was observed between 1882 and 1994
(Pfister, 1999). Severe summer (JJA) floods in Basle were particularly frequent
between 1651 and 1750, and have been related to enhanced precipitation, whilst severe
winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century, despite a significant
increase in winter precipitation (Wetter et al., 2011).
Mudelsee et al. (2003) studied long records of winter and summer floods of the
Elbe and the Oder/Odra rivers. In both rivers, they found a decrease in winter floods
140 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

during the last 80 to 150 years, while summer floods showed no significant trend.
Additionally, the authors detected significant long-term changes in flood occurrence
rates between ca 1500 and 1800.
Glaser & Stangl (2004) provide a review of past climate and floods in Central
Europe during the second millennium, in which they illustrate how documentary
sources can provide valuable information that can be expressed in either quantitative or
semi-quantitative form. These records can then be used to augment instrumental series
to provide long-term records of climate and/or flooding. The use of historical
information has demonstrated that there has been more natural variability within both
climate and floods than is evident solely from the relatively short instrumental series.
Glaser & Stangl (2004) found that medium-term (in the range of 30 to 100 years)
increases or decreases in flood frequency have occurred several times in Central
Europe. For example, they state that flood events along the Pegnitz and Main rivers in
southern Germany were more prevalent in the second half of the 16th century than in
the second half of the 20th century. However, the flood classification by Glaser &
Stangl (2004) makes use of societal impacts that depend on both the physical
magnitude of a flood (dependent on the climate and the properties of the flood routing
system) and the human exposure and vulnerability to the flood event.
Glaser et al. (2010) analysed series of floods for 12 Central European rivers based
on documentary evidence since 1500. They found four periods of higher flood
frequency: 1540–1610, 1640–1700, 1730–1790 and 1790–1840, and conclude that
flood frequency is predominantly triggered by regional climatic patterns, with only
minor influences on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme supra-
regional events and conditions resulting in multi-region floods, e.g. February/March
1784 (for more details of this event see Section 7.4.2.2).
Flood series based on documentary evidence and connected with those based on
instrumental observations were systematically studied for several catchments in the
Czech Republic (see e.g. Brázdil et al., 2005, 2011b,c; Brázdil & Kirchner, 2007).
Information prior to 1500 is rather sporadic (for example, 36 floods for the Vltava in
Prague, 25 floods for the Elbe from Roudnice nad Labem to Děčín, and only eight
events at Louny on the River Ohře) (Brázdil et al., 2005). Decadal frequencies of
flooding for these three Bohemian rivers and the River Morava (eastern Czech
Republic) in the period 1500–2010 are shown in Fig. 7 (for their flood frequency in
1901–2010 see Brázdil et al., 2012). On the River Vltava in Prague the greatest number
of floods occurred in 1851–1900 (a maximum of winter floods), while summer floods
were most frequent in the latter half of the 16th century. Ranking individual centuries,
the 19th century (68 floods) has the highest number of floods, followed by the 16th
century (54 floods). As expected, a similar pattern is found for the River Elbe: the 19th
century is dominant with 74 floods (with two-thirds of the winter synoptic type),
followed by the 16th century (40 floods) and the 20th century (37 floods). The number
of floods in the first half of the 19th century may be partly overestimated due to
inclusion in the chronology of lesser floods that were mentioned in very detailed
records kept at Litoměřice (Katzerowsky, 1886). For the River Ohře, the highest
number of floods was found between 1551 and 1650 (of 52 cases, 32 occurred in
1551–1600) with a predominant occurrence of the summer type floods. In comparison
with the 40 floods of the 19th century (with a prevalence of winter floods), it seems
that many floods of the summer synoptic type on the Ohře were localised events (local
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 141

Fig. 7 Decadal frequencies of floods of the Czech Lands in 1501–2010 with


differentiation according to the synoptic type of the flood (1 – winter synoptic type –
occurrence in November–April, 2 – summer synoptic type – May–October, 3 – not
specified): the River Vltava (from České Budějovice to its mouth into the Elbe near
Mělník), the River Ohře (from Kadaň to its mouth into the Elbe at Litoměřice), the
River Elbe (from Brandýs nad Labem to Děčín), the River Morava (from Olomouc to
Strážnice). Arrows mark the beginning of systematic measurements.

torrential rains). The frequency of the River Morava floods increases from the 18th to
the 20th century (49, 60 and 76 floods correspondingly) with the maximum number
reached in the period 1891–1920. It seems that this series is biased by incomplete
evidence not only in the 16th–17th centuries, but also later during 1701–1710 and
1791–1820 (Brázdil et al., 2011b).
Summarising the results of the above analysis (Fig. 7), the periods of maximum
flood activity in Bohemia since 1501 are concentrated in the 19th century (mainly
142 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

floods of the winter synoptic type) and the latter half of the 16th century (mainly floods
of the summer synoptic type), with a similar number of events recorded within the 17th
century (with incomplete documentary data) and the 20th century.
The chronology of floods in Polish lands goes back to the early days of the Polish
statehood. Girguś & Strupczewski (1965) mention, among others, the following large
events: 1118, with inundations caused by long-lasting rain in spring and summer; 1221,
with multiple inundations between Easter and autumn; 1253, with a period of long-
lasting and intense rain between Easter (20 April) and St Jacob’s Day (25 July); 1270,
with a wet period and flooding on St Mary Magdalene’s Day (22 July) causing many
fatalities; 1427, with rain from St Bartholomew Day (24 August) until the onset of
frost. There were many floods on the Vistula in the 19th century (Cyberski et al.,
2006), e.g. in August 1813 and July 1844 (rain-induced summer floods), and winter
floods associated with ice jams in the winters of 1828/1829, 1839/1840 and 1844/1845.

7.4.1.3 The Mediterranean area


In the Mediterranean countries, episodes of flooding and periods of prolonged drought
are normal hydrological phenomena of river regimes. In terms of flood-producing
atmospheric conditions, the western Mediterranean shows three distinct regions:
(i) central and western Iberian Peninsula, (ii) the Mediterranean coast of Spain and
Western Mediterranean Sea; (iii) Corsica, Sardinia and the western coast of Italy
(Douguédroit & Norrant, 2003). Central and western Iberian Peninsula rivers respond
to winter floods produced by Atlantic cyclonic systems brought by zonal circulation,
highly correlated with the winter (DJF) negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Index (NAOI; Trigo et al., 2004). This explains out-of-phase flooding periods over
different Mediterranean regions. Brázdil et al. (1999), analysing in detail the severity
and frequency of the 16th century floods in Europe, found a prevalence of flood
occurrence during the second half of this century for Andalusian rivers (southwestern
Spain), while Italian and northeastern Spanish rivers had a higher occurrence of floods
during the first half of the same century. Documentary and palaeoflood (sedimentary)
records for the River Tagus (central-western Iberian Peninsula) show an abnormally
high frequency of large floods during distinct periods: 1150–1290, 1590–1610, 1730–
1760, 1780–1810, 1870–1900, 1930–1950 and 1960–1980 (Benito et al., 2003a,b).
Flood discharge estimates show that the largest floods took place in the 12th–13th
centuries, the late 19th century and the 20th century. The largest historical flood peak
discharges since 1500 (Benito et al., 2003a, 2008) occurred during negative winter
(DJF) NAOI, as reconstructed by Luterbacher et al. (2002). In large Iberian Atlantic
rivers, flow regulation by dams since the 1950s has decreased the frequency of floods
of discharge less than the 10% annual-probability floods (10-year events), but events of
higher return interval have occurred during the instrumental period with a similar
frequency (if not more frequently) than historical floods (e.g. 1978, 1979, 1989, 1996
and 1998).
Flooding in the Mediterranean along the coast of Spain and France is associated
with heavy rainfall induced by meso-scale convective systems (Llasat & Puigcerver,
1994), and typically occurs during autumn months (SON). Flood records over the last
500 years reflect an intense climatic variability, characterised by periods of increased
frequency of torrential rains with catastrophic flooding, as well as by an increased
frequency of prolonged droughts (flood-rich and flood-poor periods; Machado et al.,
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 143

2011). This abnormal behaviour usually lasts for 30 or 40 years (Fig. 8), the periods
1580–1620 and 1840–1870 being the most notable with the highest flood severity
registered (Barriendos & Martín-Vide, 1998; Barriendos & Rodrigo, 2006). It appears
that these periods recorded more frequent floods as compared to the 20th century
(Guilbert, 1994; Coeur, 2003a; Luterbacher et al., 2006), although similar extreme
peak discharges were attained in some rivers in the 20th century floods (e.g. 2002-
flood in the River Gardon, see Sheffer et al., 2008; 1973-flood in the Guadalentín-

Fig. 8 (a) Tagus River annual flood series of reported floods (discharges estimated
using HEC-RAS model) and systematic flood discharges (recorded at gauge
stations) in Aranjuez (Central Spain; Benito et al., 2003a). The date of floods of
unknown flood stage are indicated as dashed bars. (b) Maximum annual flood
series for the River Tiber in Rome (after Calenda et al., 2005). Note in both cases
the peak discharges recorded during the 20th century were lower than those
reconstructed during the historical period.
144 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

Segura catchment, see Benito et al., 2010; Machado et al., 2011). The increase in
population and extensive occupation of the Mediterranean region since the 1980s
contributes to the perception of increasing flood risk (Coeur, 2003a; Benito &
Machado, 2012).
Flood-producing mechanisms along the coastlines of western Italy, Corsica and
Sardinia are related to meridional circulation associated with Mediterranean depressions,
northern troughs reaching the Mediterranean, or depressions coming from northern Africa
(Piervitali & Colacino, 2003). In the River Tiber (central Italy) extreme events were
particularly frequent in the 15th and 17th centuries (Camuffo et al., 2003). These two
periods were characterised by an increased frequency of severe winters, and under these
circumstances the cyclogenesis was enhanced by a greater contrast between the seawater
temperature and the colder air masses (Camuffo et al., 2003). The former was described as
a wet period, which included the Spörer Minimum of solar activity (1416–1534). The
periods of 1000–1400, 1500–1600 and 1700 onwards show a very low flood frequency,
which was further reduced after river regulation and management works undertaken in
the 19th century. In Italy, the Spörer Minimum was a period which experienced a number
of extreme meteorological events and floods (Camuffo & Enzi, 1994, 1995, 1996; Brázdil
et al., 1999; Glaser et al., 1999). Extreme floods exceeding the 16 m stage (>2600 m3 s-1)
at Ripetta landing, Rome (16 545 km2) have varied through the last 500 years: four
floods above 18 m (>3400 m3 s-1) took place during a period of only 77 years, 1530–
1606 (Calenda et al., 2005), which coincides with the Little Ice Age, intriguingly a
period of reported low flood frequency (Camuffo et al., 2003). Recent flooding is
difficult to evaluate in the context of climate change due to river regulation structures,
with the largest floods (exceeding 2000 m3 s-1) being 2750 m3 s-1 in 1937, 2300 m3 s-1
in 1923 and 1947, 2050 m3 s-1 in 1929 and 1976. During the 20th century, flood events
exceeding 1400 m3 s-1 occurred at an average frequency of seven times per decade
prior to the 1970s, whereas after the 1970s it decreased to about five events per decade.
The River Gardon, the most southern tributary of the River Rhône (France), exper-
ienced an extreme flood on 8–9 September 2002 due to intense precipitation (600 mm
in 20 hours; Delrieu et al., 2004). The 2002 flood discharge, larger than any known
flood on the gauge record, was estimated at 6000–6800 m3 s-1 at Dions-Russan (1515 km2)
and claimed the lives of 23 people, causing 1.2 billion Euro worth of damage. Historical
data for the River Gardon date back to the 11th century (six floods between 1295 and
1470), although the more complete record of floods starts in the 15th century with 58 floods
between 1600 and 1900 (Davy, 1956; Anton & Cellier, 1993; http://www.gard.equipement.
gouv.fr). These floods are clustered with more frequent events during the following
periods: 1740–1750, 1765–1786, 1820–1846, 1860–1880 and 1890–1900 (Sheffer et
al., 2008). The magnitude of these floods is unknown, although following the damage
and the descriptions shown in the DDE (2003) database, those of 1403, 1604, 1741,
1768 and 1846 were probably the most catastrophic historical floods (DDE, 2003). This
number of five major historical floods equals the number of palaeoflood stratigraphic
units (located 13 km upstream of Remoulins) dated to the last 500 years and described
by Sheffer et al. (2008), with at least three floods with peak discharges estimated at
between 6850 and 7100 m3 s-1, and two reaching magnitudes exceeding 8000 m3s-1.
Historical flood data from the eastern Mediterranean are rather scarce despite the
rich archives of documentary data (e.g. Repapis et al., 1989; Telelis, 2008). Grove &
Conterio (1994, 1995), Grove (2001) and Xoplaki et al. (2001) reported on the
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 145

variability of climate and extremes (severe winters, droughts and wet periods) during
parts of the Little Ice Age, and its impact on human life, using different types of
written source materials. Xoplaki et al. (2001) found that during the Little Ice Age
conditions were more severe than in the late 20th century.

7.4.1.4 Northern Europe


Floods in Norway are caused by a combination of snowmelt and rainfall in the spring,
early winter and summer, with more convective rainfall in the summer and long-
duration frontal rainfall in the autumn or early winter. The dominant flood generating
mechanism varies across Norway depending on the topography and exposure to frontal
systems moving from either the sea or from Sweden. The large floods in the south are
linked to meridional circulation types with fronts moving in the sector from southeast
to southwest. The most hazardous of the southeastern type is a cyclone moving along
the Vb track (van Bebber, 1891), which caused the worst flood disaster in Norway –
the Storofsen in 1789 (Kington, 1988). Some floods of the southwestern type trajectory
are caused by remnants of tropical cyclones, moving towards northwestern Europe, and
gradually turning into extratropical cyclones. Floods in the west are predominant in the
autumn and early winter and are caused by polar front cyclones. These floods are more
frequent during phases of positive NAOI. Summer rainfall floods are mostly localised
events. Some of the worst flood disasters in Norway were caused by landslides, which
temporarily dam the rivers, but once these dams are breached they cause catastrophic
floods for downstream communities. Several of these slides were caused by long
duration or intense rainfall. For example, the River Vorma (downstream of Lake
Mjøsa) was dammed by a major clay slide in 1795; as a result the water level in Lake
Mjøsa rose by between 6 and 7.5 m before the Norwegian Army succeeded in digging
a canal through the dam after 111 days. A slide on a nearby tributary to the River
Glomma also required a canal to be dug through the dam, which took 132 days of hard
labour, after the water level had risen by 19 m. Ice and snowmelt floods have also
caused considerable damage, especially in inland rivers during sudden warm weather.
The oldest records of flooding in Norway are from the River Glomma. There are
legends about a large flood around 1450 and another around 1540; Harlin (1988) refers
to an extreme flood in the River Dalälven in Sweden in 1544, which could be the same
event. Wallén (1930) and Harlin (1988) discuss several floods from the 1540s onwards
in Sweden, which are missing in the Norwegian records. The first flood with a known
level occurred in 1675. Other large floods prior to 1900 occurred in 1650, 1717, 1721,
1724, 1749, 1760, 1773, 1789, 1827, 1846, 1850, 1867, 1887 and 1890 (Fig. 9). These
were mostly spring floods related to snowmelt, but some were accompanied by rain,
and they often include some degree of ice flow. The large flood of Vesleofsen in 1995
is the second largest after Storofsen in 1789, but does not exceed this event because of
the retention of water in a number of upstream reservoirs (Lundquist & Repp, 1997).
The largest floods in the western, more alpine branch of the River Glomma,
Gudbrandsdalslågen, occurred in 1760, 1789 and 1860. This was the region where
Storofsen was most devastating and where most fatalities occurred.
The 1860 flood was larger than Storofsen in the major rivers west of the Glomma
catchment. The flood magnitude was similar to those in 1927 (Roald, 2012). Although
snowmelt is the most common reason for flooding, some of the largest events have been
related to heavy rainfall. The largest floods before 1900 occurred in 1653, 1752, 1789,
146 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

Fig. 9 Flood stone with flood water levels at the Forestry Museum at Elverum next to
the River Glomma (Photo: L. A. Roald).

1792, 1822, 1827, 1837, 1853, 1858, 1864, 1879, 1892 and 1897. Several of these
floods rank also among the largest on the southern coast. However, the largest in this
district was the Storflodi in 1898. There are records of flooding or avalanches in
western Norway in almost every year back to the 1650s; some of the most extreme
occurred in 1652, 1723, 1743, 1793, 1804, 1826, 1842, 1860, 1873, 1878, 1879, 1884
and 1893.
The main rivers in the district around Trondheim had major floods in 1345, 1675,
1689, 1692, 1698, 1727, 1734, 1789, 1828, 1845, 1858 and 1881. The Storofsen flood
was devastating in the rivers Driva and Orkla, and several of the other events have
caused multiple fatalities. There is very little information about floods before 1900 in
the three northernmost counties of Norway.
In 1899, the majority of water stages in Finland reached their highest observed
levels for which quantitative data are available. Extensive damage was inflicted in the
region covering approximately one third of the area of Finland, known as the Lake
District (Renqvist, 1951). The catastrophe was named The Deluge of the Broken Oath
because of the political circumstances with Czar Nicolas II of Russia. The deluge was
due to a late snowmelt season and high rainfall during May 1899, which resulted in
water levels in many lakes being 2 m above normal (Kuusisto, 2001).

7.4.2 Historical extreme floods in Europe


In this section, examples of some outstanding flood events of the past millennium
mentioned in documentary evidence are briefly described.
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 147

7.4.2.1 Western Europe


In Western Europe (Belgium, Denmark, The Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) a
number of large and high-impact historical events have been recorded.

September and October 1763 Widespread flooding occurred during September


and October of 1763, with floods documented in Ireland, England and Scotland,
attributed in a number of accounts to heavy rainfall and storms. The first floods are
documented in Scotland on the rivers Tay, Dee and Don in early September, with
flooding recorded in England in Oxfordshire and Gloucester (15 September), and
extensive flooding of eastern Ireland during the following weeks in county Wexford
(28 September) and Wicklow (3 October). Floods were then recorded again in England
in Lincolnshire (4 October), with localised flooding also recorded in Essex (8 October).

January 1809 The January of 1809 witnessed large floods across much of
England, Wales and Holland, with ice dam floods also recorded in Central Europe,
notably in Bohemia on the Vltava and Elbe rivers (Brázdil et al., 2005) and in Slovakia
on the Danube (Pišút, 2009). Within the UK, high-magnitude floods were recorded on
several rivers including the Thames, Severn (at Gloucester), Trent, Exe and Eden,
spanning the length of England. The accounts of the floods of January 1809 on the
Waal identify a large flood event ranked second in the flood series at Nijmegen
(Table 1), with nearly 200 lives lost. In England the floods are attributed to heavy
rainfall, whilst in Holland they were associated with snowmelt and ice flow.

7.4.2.2 Central Europe


July 1342 The widespread flood of July 1342 was probably far more severe than
any other flood in Central Europe during the last thousand years. This so-called “St
Magdalene flood” was caused by almost incessant rains that lasted for eight days, and in
places were in the form of torrential rainfall, following a long, dry period (Tetzlaff et al.,
2001). Alexandre (1987) cited 19 different reports from documentary sources describing
this flood, which affected the catchments of the Main, Neckar, Werra, Fulda, Elbe,
Danube and the Rhine up to Mainz (Fig. 10). Exceptionally high values of specific
runoff (possibly reaching 160–180 L s-1 km-2 in the Main catchment) resulted in intense
widespread erosion, e.g. formation of 10-m deep ravines on agriculturally utilised
slopes in various parts of Germany. Bork (1988) links a considerable share of the total
transfer of eroded material over the last 10 000 years to this single extreme event. Based on
a study of lake sediments of the Urnersee (Siegenthaler & Sturm, 1990), the 1342 flood
can be considered as a “millennium” event. The analogy to Noah and the biblical deluge
was strong as water seemed to have come from everywhere. The flood also led to loss
of human life with considerable and widespread material damage. A report from the
Chronicle of Erfurt (Holder-Egger, 1896) states that bridges were destroyed not only in
Erfurt, but also in Dresden, Würzburg, Regensburg, Frankfurt am Main, Wetzendorf
near Nuremberg and Bamberg. However, this report probably combines the damage
with that of the disastrous winter (snowmelt) flood that occurred five months before the
summer deluge, in February 1342, as documented on the Loire, Seine, Rhine, Danube,
Main, Neckar, Inn and Elbe (Alexandre, 1987). While this flood was described in detail
in the annals of František Pražský for the River Vltava in Prague (Zachová, 1997), there
is no account of the July 1342 flood in Bohemia. The 1342 flood can be seen in a broader
148 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

Fig. 10 A localization of the extreme flood of July 1342 in Central Europe, according
to reports cited in Alexandre (1987) (adapted according to Bork, 1988).

context – according to Lamb (1982), the first half of the 14th century (1310s and 1340s)
witnessed the wettest extremes and some of the most severe floods in much of Europe.
February and March 1784 The winter of 1783/1784 is known to have been severe
and long-lasting over a large part of Europe, with an uncommon, deep low pressure
area and much snow, possibly as a manifestation of the Little Ice Age. Moreover, the
harsh and long-lasting winter of 1783/1784 can be seen in the context of the Icelandic
Lakagígar volcanic eruption during June 1783–February 1784 (e.g. Thordarson & Self,
1993; Stothers, 1996; Demarée et al., 1998; Demarée & Ogilvie, 2001). After 21
February 1784, a warm southerly wind led to a sudden thaw across much of Europe,
which resulted in the rapid break-up of ice on the frozen rivers. In addition, there was
intense snowmelt and heavy precipitation, which resulted in catastrophic, large-scale
and long-lasting floods across much of Europe (Demarée, 2006). In Central Europe the
floods extended across large areas of Germany, Austria, the Czech and Slovak lands,
but they also occurred in present-day Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxemburg and
northern France. The flood caused extreme damage (destruction of many bridges, mills
and houses) and caused multiple casualties. This was the largest-ever winter flood, not
only on the River Vltava in Prague, 27–29 February 1784, but also on many rivers in
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 149

Germany (Glaser & Hagedorn, 1990; Munzar et al., 2005; Brázdil et al., 2010; Elleder,
2010a). The damage and losses caused by the severe ice-jam flood in February 1784 in
much of Germany and Bohemia were perceived as surpassing the devastation caused
by previous wars (Glaser & Stangl, 2004). More recently, Bendix (1997) speculated
that the maximum water level of the Rhine at Cologne during the disastrous 1993 flood
was much (by 1.92 m) lower than during the historical flood of 1784.

7.4.2.3 The Mediterranean


November 1617 The catastrophic floods of 1617 were amongst the largest within
the historic territory of the Aragon Kingdom for the last ca. 700 years. The storm
began on 2 November with a band of torrential rain passing over coastal areas of
Valencia and Catalonia (Thorndycraft et al., 2006). Initially the affected area was not
extensive; however, a shift in wind direction on 3 November (to predominantly south-
easterlies or southerlies) caused the rainfall to push further inland and cover the whole
of Catalonia and the eastern parts of Aragon (Barriendos, 2002). The first floods
mentioned in the documentary evidence occurred in the morning of 3 November in
small coastal catchments, near Girona. By evening, there was flooding into the interior,
namely of Seu d’Urgell in the upper Segre and the Noguera Ribagorzana catchment.
The orographic effect of the Pyrenees led to high rainfall that lasted for many hours
during 3–4 November in the headwaters. After a brief calm period, coastal areas were
hit by further torrential rain (5–6 November), this time resulting from dispersed
convective activity. As a result of this prolonged heavy rainfall, severe damage was
documented at Seu d’Urgell, Balaguer, Lleida, Girona, Fraga, Zaragoza and Tortosa
(Barriendos, 2002). The flooding subsequently extended to the northern side of the
Pyrenees, to Perpignan. The known damage sustained in the region was the destruction
of 389 houses, 17 water mills and 22 bridges, partial damage to six city walls and the
rupture of seven irrigation canals (Thorndycraft et al., 2006). The most severely
affected reaches were at Lleida in the Segre catchment (where the Cappont
neighbourhood was totally destroyed), Tortosa in the Ebro catchment and the lower
reaches of the rivers Llobregat and Ter. The destruction of mills resulted in the loss of
a basic source of energy, impeding flour production and resulting in famine in the
largest towns (Barriendos, 2002).

7.4.2.4 Northern Europe


The 1340s A major slide occurred in September 1345, damming the River Gaula in
Sør-Trøndelag in Norway. The event is documented in the Icelandic Skálholt annals and
in two other sources. The slide probably occurred during a major flood. The river was
completely dammed and a lake quickly formed upstream. The subsequent dam-break
caused a large flood wave to move downstream towards the fjord (Rokoengen et al.,
2001). Forty-eight farms and three churches were destroyed. At least 250 farmers with
their wives and children, priests, clerks and other well-to-do people perished, as well as
many travellers and paupers on the pilgrim road to Nidaros (Trondheim). This is the most
severe natural disaster in terms of loss of life in Norway. There are two accounts which
document an extreme flood affecting the village of Vågåmo in the mountainous western
part of the Glomma catchment. This flood is called Digerofsen and occurred either in
1342 or in 1348 (the two sources disagree about the year). The flood may have
occurred in either the same year as the St Magdalene flood described above, or a flood
150 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

on the Rhine in 1348. It was probably a summer flood, linked to rainfall and warm air
moving from the southeast to this district, just as during Storofsen in 1789.
December 1743 A large area of western Norway was subject to an extensive
flood named Storeflaumen in December 1743 at the end of one of the worst climatic
periods of the Little Ice Age. The flood occurred as a result of a warm airflow from the
southwest that caused excessive snowmelt and ice melt up to 1000 m a.s.l. in the most
alpine part of Norway. Many districts in western Norway experienced heavy rainfall
during the first half of December. In the village of Voss, the water reached 2.5 m on the
wall of the church. Around 500 farms suffered damage, mostly from avalanches and
landslides (Kindem, 1933; Riksen, 1969; Grove & Battagel, 1989). A flood of similar
magnitude occurred in August 1719 in Vosso and in a district further south (Kindem,
1933) as a result of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.
July 1789 The most devastating flood in Norway, Ofsen or Storofsen occurred in
July 1789 in a very large area of eastern Norway; the flood caused extensive damage to
more than 1500 farms and killed at least 79 people. The 1788/1789 winter, the last in a
series of hard winters starting in 1773/1774, was very severe with moderate snowfall
initially. Much snow fell in the late winter on soil which was frozen to a good depth. In
May 1789 the snow began to melt, and with heavy rainfall caused the soil to become
saturated. The heavy rainfall, caused by a cyclone moving along the Vb track (van
Bebber, 1891), took place in the first two weeks of July causing the floods to start on
21 July 1789. The temperature was exceptionally high with violent thunderstorms. The
snow remaining after a long spell of cold years melted, even at the highest levels,
resulting in several hundred landslides causing severe damage to many farms and
houses with a number of bridges also being washed away (Kleiven, 1908a; Otnes,
1982; Roald, 2003; Benestad & Haugen, 2007).
June 1860 In June 1860, a two-peak flood caused by late spring snowmelt
(following excessive snowfall during the winter of 1859/1860) combined with heavy
rainfall affected catchments from the River Vorma/Lågen to the eastern part of the
River Skienselv, as well as three major rivers in western Norway. The total area
affected and the flood volume exceeded even those of Storofsen. The flood lasted from
late May to mid July with the main peak on 14–22 June. The extreme precipitation
caused 45 landslides, at least 12 people died and a large number of bridges were
washed away. The second-highest water level ever at Lake Mjøsa and Lake Øyeren
was achieved during this flood (Fig. 11) (Johnson, 1861; Kleiven, 1908b; Otnes, 1974;
Roald, 2002).

7.5 DISCUSSION
Historical hydrology provides centennial-scale records of flooding from which it is
possible to reconstruct the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (Brázdil et al.,
2006c). Moreover, documentary flood data contain valuable information about the
socio-economic consequences and societal resilience to extreme flooding, which needs
to be evaluated according to different historical contexts. These two sides of historical
flooding tackle two important aspects of the flood-risk equation: the natural hazards,
and their impacts, including socio-economic vulnerability. In terms of flood hazards,
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 151

Fig. 11 Historical flood levels in Lake Mjøsa, Norway, 1846–2011, smoothed by


Gaussian filter over 10 years. The highest water level of 10.1 m was reached during
Storofsen in 1789.

historical data may be used to estimate peak discharges associated with individual floods
which, combined with instrumental gauge records, can substantially improve flood
frequency analysis of high-magnitude low-probability events (<0.1% probability floods;
Benito et al., 2003a). In terms of vulnerability and the exposure of goods and people,
the analysis of socio-economic impacts of floods throughout history provides a number
of “lessons learnt” in relation to societal adaption and mitigation, in key aspects of flood
management practice (Coeur, 2004). Flood damage experienced by riverine societies
during past centuries is very valuable information and can be used in risk education
tasks directed towards Civil Protection technicians, volunteers bodies and schools.
Most historical flood records represent extreme or rare events. Although in the
past unregulated rivers inundated many localities almost every year, written records
were made only when events were out of the ordinary or of direct impact to persons or
societies; this coupled with lower occupation and use of flood plains historically,
would have resulted in many inundations of flood plains failing to attract any attention
(Brázdil et al., 2011b). The origins of flooding lie in the consequences of the
combination of certain extreme hydrological and meteorological patterns that may vary
widely in terms of temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial distribution. In fact,
changes of flood seasonality can lead to differences in flood frequency and severity,
even in neighbouring catchments (Macdonald et al., 2010). These facts have a
significant influence on comparisons of centennial or decadal flood frequency between
different rivers. Besides some regionally-limited flooding events, a conspicuously
variable number of floods can be recorded for individual catchments, as well as in the
individual time intervals of the same flood chronology. The latter can be understood as
an indication of the non-stationarity of the flood series, which is unsurprising
(Thorndycraft et al., 2003) considering the climate fluctuations and changes in the
environment and human impacts on watercourses (regulation of rivers, various water-
works, weirs and reservoirs) and on the retention ability of the landscape.
It has been usual to analyse recent floods (e.g. the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995,
the Odra/Oder flood in 1997 and the Elbe flood in 2002) in a broader perspective and
compare them with historical events. A detailed comparison is very difficult due to
changes in urban configuration as well as modification of river channels and banks
over centennial time periods (Brázdil et al., 2012). A detailed analysis of historical
maps may reduce uncertainties about channel changes, as well as human occupation of
riverine areas (e.g. Hooke & Redmond, 1989; Pišút, 2002, 2006; Brázdil et al., 2011a).
152 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

An example of the first credible flood report from the Czech Lands was given by the
chronicler Cosmas for September 1118 in Prague (Bretholz, 1923): “In the year of our
Lord 1118 in the month of September there was such a flood as, I think, has not been
on the Earth since the Deluge. This river of ours, the Vltava, suddenly breaking out of
its bed, how many villages, how many houses in the suburbia, huts and churches did it
take away! At other times, although it happens rarely, the water reaches only the floor
of the bridges, but this flood rose to the height of ten ells [i.e. approximately 6 m] over
the bridge.” This apparently qualitative description provides two indications regarding
flood water stages: a minimum flood stage, as flood water level spilled over the bridge,
as well as an exact indication of flood depth reaching an elevation of 6 m over the
bridge. These two flood levels can be used to reconstruct the flood discharge associated
with this historical flood (Benito et al., 2003a; Brázdil et al., 2006c).
Accurate flood discharge estimations may be obtained from epigraphic
inscriptions or flood-marks, although missing knowledge about the past natural
conditions may cause some uncertainty in such estimates. For example, water levels of
the Vltava floods in Prague were recorded at a stone statue of a bearded man (so-
called “Bradáč”), originally located on the pillar of the former Judith Bridge, and
later transferred to the right-side embankment wall of the Charles Bridge (Elleder,
2003). First reference to a flood-level measurement at “Bradáč” appears in June
1481, more precisely in an ex post reference of February 1342, when the water was
said to have reached the level of “Bradáč’s nose”. Figure 12 shows several Prague
floods, which can be compared with the most disastrous August 2002 flood. There are
no water-marks for the two other outstanding floods of the past millennium, the floods
of September 1118 (Bretholz, 1923) and July 1432 (Brázdil et al., 2006b), which
complicates the comparison.
When using historical data, care and consideration needs to be given to the
records’ reliability and accuracy, and this needs to be accounted for in any flood risk
analysis. However, even with potential uncertainty in the precision of the data, the
use of past flood information is a valuable tool in the improvement of rare floods
estimation (Benito et al., 2004). Many researchers have emphasised the potential
advantages of including historical records within statistical methods when estimating
flood frequency probabilities through the use of palaeoflood and documentary
information (Stedinger & Cohn, 1986; Francés et al., 1994). The benefit of incorpor-
ating historical records into flood frequency comes from the rarity of high-magnitude
events within instrumental series; as such, the inclusion of a few estimated high-
magnitude events can substantially improve estimates of low-probability rare floods.
This is particularly true when three-parameter distributions are considered (Francés,
2004). Recent studies by Fernandes et al. (2010) and Botero & Francés (2010) have
explored four-parameter upper-bounded statistical distributions in combination with
gauge, historical and palaeoflood data. In nearly all cases, the addition of historical
information greatly improves estimates of low-probability (high return period) floods,
most commonly indicated by markedly narrower confidence limits about flood
probability estimates. In terms of flood response to climate change, global circulation
model projections for the future are still too uncertain to specify a basin-scale change
in frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. Predictions can be improved by
incorporating centennial records of flooding and their triggering mechanism (rainfall,
snowmelt, etc.) in climatic modelling and statistical analysis.
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 153

Fig. 12 The recorded and estimated levels of the greatest floods on the River Vltava
in Prague relative to the position of “Bradáč” (Brázdil et al., 2006c).

The breadth of source material has always represented a challenge in the


collation of historical flood information for specific locations; in part, this has
explained the slow uptake of the incorporation of historical records into planning and
development legislation. Increasingly, these issues are being overcome with the
development of search engines that permit the centralisation of historical
hydrological information into databases such as the British Hydrological Society
Chronology of Hydrological Events (Black & Law, 2004); these databases then
permit access to a wide range of historical sources.
Extending current understanding of past floods is essential to place recent flood
events into perspective and to determine changes in flood risk with the help of
palaeoflood hydrology and historical hydrology. The role of climate change and land-
use and land-cover changes in periods of increased (decreased) flooding is difficult to
determine. Stratigraphic records from the USA (Knox, 1993) have shown that even
modest climatic changes have resulted in considerable changes in the magnitude and
frequency of extreme floods. Starkel (1987) hypothesised that human activity
accelerated runoff and sediment yields as early as about 10 500 years ago in steppe
regions, while many forested regions were similarly affected about 6800 years ago.
Although extreme floods tend to be less sensitive to land use than moderate to small
magnitude floods, it is clear that human impacts on hydrological systems can also
cause changes within the flood record.
154 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

7.6 CONCLUSIONS
This Chapter presents the state of the art of historical hydrology in Europe from which
some more general conclusions follow:
(i) The main meteorological triggers for flooding are related to features of
atmospheric circulation and synoptic systems. The spatial extent of synoptic
processes influences any potential changes in flooding at the regional scale, when
even neighbouring catchments can have totally different records of flooding. For
example, while in the River Oder floods from heavy rain significantly prevail,
their proportion in the neighbouring River Morava catchment is low, with more
floods caused by snowmelt, often accompanied by rain (Brázdil et al., 2012). This
means that more common features in the frequency and magnitude of floods occur
in more climatologically homogeneous regions (like Central Europe), while in
other regions (such as the Mediterranean) the opposite might be the case (see e.g.
frequency of the 16th century floods, Brázdil et al., 1999).
(ii) Despite massive human impacts in river catchments, it is still possible to compare
recent floods with those described in documentary accounts. However, comparison
is complicated by the non-stationarity of flood series and incompleteness of the
documentary data available, with some floods remaining undocumented where no
loss of life or damage was noted. While at the regional scale this comparison
brings valuable information (e.g. for the past 500 years in Bohemia – see Fig. 7),
broader statements concerning the frequency of events over decadal or century
time scales may be misleading.
(iii) The perception of flood frequency and severity changes during the centuries. A
passive understanding of floods as a “sign from God” has been replaced with an
increased recognition that floods are natural phenomena. This change in
philosophical understanding is reflected in administrative, organisational and
engineering activities, with greater efforts given by society to save human lives
and decrease material damage during flooding. In part, this has been achieved
through better management in controlling the source areas, by reducing the speed
of runoff and improvements in the regulation of rivers and building of water
retaining structures (mainly water reservoirs).
(iv) Historical flood accounts often contain details of corroborative information (e.g.
water marks), which permit comparison of past events with recent floods, or can
even be used in the estimation of historical peak discharges. The long periods
covered by historical records, relative to systematic instrumental observations,
permit more reliable estimation of high-magnitude low-probability events,
providing an important tool in flood risk estimation.
Learning from past events is an important tool for better understanding floods and
for the provision of more effective protective measures against future events.
According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Parry et al., 2007), the
continuation of recent warming trends across Europe and changes in the water cycle
are likely to increase the risk of floods in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe. Model
calculations for the 2020s project an increased risk of winter floods in Northern Europe,
coupled with flash floods across all of Europe. Recent 100-year return frequency floods
should occur more frequently by the 2070s, not only in Northern and north Eastern
Europe, but also in Central and Eastern Europe (cf. Kundzewicz et al., 2010).
Chapter 7, Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 155

Acknowledgements
R. Brázdil acknowledges the financial support by a research project MŠM0021622412
(INCHEMBIOL). Z. W. Kundzewicz acknowledges the support by the EU research
project WATCH. Research funds used by G. Benito were provided by the Spanish
Ministry of Science and Innovation (CICYT) project FLOOD-MED (GL2008-06474-
CO2-01). N. Macdonald was supported by the University of Liverpool. G. Demarée
gratefully acknowledges the precious help of Michael Essig, Librarian of the
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde at Koblenz, Germany. Daniel L. Vischer (ETH
Zürich) is acknowledged for Fig. 2, Oldřich Kotyza (Regional Museum, Litoměřice)
for Figs 4 and 6, and Laďka Řezníčková (Institute of Geography, Masaryk University,
Brno) for Figs 7 and 11.

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