The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant following the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of March in 2011 has proven costly in many ways – politically, economically and emotionally. Strangely, the costs that never materialized were the most feared, those of radiation-induced cancer and death. No radiological health effects have yet to result from the Fukushima disaster - neither cancers, deaths nor radiation sickness - although the WHO models indicate a slight increase is statistically possible. No one received enough dose, even the 20,000 workers who have worked tirelessly to recover from this event.
The direct costs of the Fukushima disaster will be about $15 billion in clean-up over the next 20 years and over $60 billion in refugee compensation. Replacing Japan’s 300 billion kWhs from nuclear each year with fossil fuels has cost Japan over $200 billion, mostly from fuel costs for natural gas, fuel oil and coal, as renewables have failed to expand in Japan. This cost will at least double, and that only if the nuclear fleet is mostly restarted by 2020.
The reconstruction and recovery costs associated with just the earthquake and the tsunami will top $250 billion. Since 2011, Japan’s trade deficit has become the worst in its history, and Japan is now the second largest net importer of fossil fuel in the world, right behind China.
These costs may seem high, but it was the largest tsunami in history that hit the densest-populated industrialized country in history.
The Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant before and after the devastating tsunami in Japan on the 11th of... [+]
Five years ago, a magnitude 9 earthquake on the Tohoku Fault off the east coast of Japan sent a 50-foot tsunami crashing into the coast with almost no warning, flooding over 500 square miles of land, killing almost 20,000 people, destroying a million homes and businesses, and making 300,000 people homeless.
When the earthquake hit the region around Fukushima, eleven operating nuclear reactors at four power plants all shut down automatically. None were damaged by the earthquake itself. However, the inadequate sea wall surrounding the six reactors at
By March 13th, 150,000 people were ordered to evacuate from within 20 kilometers of the nuclear plant. This was very effective in preventing any and all radiation-induced health-effects to the public thus far. However, over 1,000 deaths were caused solely by the evacuation, not from radiation, the earthquake or the tsunami. The only health effects suffered continue to be from stress, depression and fear.
As the level of radiation drops both naturally through decay, and as a result of active decontamination, the evacuation orders are being lifted. It is expected that 70% of the evacuees will be allowed to return home by next year, 2017, although many in the public do not trust the government’s assurances.
No other operating nuclear reactors in Japan were damaged or affected by the earthquake or the tsunami. The immediate urge to shut down all 50+ Japanese nuclear reactors was understandable, but has caused more harm than good. Japan only has 15 nuclear reactors at any risk from a tsunami. Shutting down these 15 reactors was reasonable in order to determine how to make them more resistant to this particular threat.
But all the other reactors were not at risk from tsunamis and could have continued operating during the safety review following the accident, during formation of the new nuclear regulatory authority, and during the development and implementation of the new safety measures. They had no issues. Closing all of them at once caused energy imports into Japan to rise to 85% of its energy requirements, increasing coal, oil and gas dramatically along with their demonstrably-worse health effects.
Many actions are being taken to shore up Japan's tsunami defenses. Hokkaido is building a 6.5-meter-high seawall that will run 1.25-km at its Tomari nuclear plant. Kansai will spend $2.5 billion over four years to tsunami-proof its reactors.
These are reasonable precautions to address these few reactors actually at risk from this danger. Currently 43 reactors are operable and potentially able to restart, and 24 of these are in the process of restart approvals. The first two reactors were restarted in late 2015 and a third will restart in the first half of 2016.
The fifth anniversary of the accident brings more optimism than could have been predicted five years ago. The government has removed almost 10 million cubic yards of contaminated soil and debris, and washed down buildings and roadways to get outdoor radiation exposures to below 1 mSv /year (100 mrem/year), a level lower than almost anywhere in the United States. Rural decontamination is complete in more than half of the evacuation zone. Fukushima-grown food has no detectable radiation from the accident. The fishing stocks off the Japanese coast are not contaminated. The ocean off the coast of Fukushima is not contaminated. Even though some radiation is still leaking from the site, the volume is too small to effect anyone or anything offsite, and containment is almost complete.
But the recovery needs to accelerate to prevent lingering personal and economic hardship for the country and so many of its people. A look at the Fukushima Recovery Plan is the subject of my next post.
